• Home
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Date/Time
  • Login
  • Subscribe

logo

  • Home
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
Home
  • Home
  • Blogs
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
  • Home
  • Magazine

East Asian myths

From Asian values to the Asian growth miracle, the west is mesmerised by the east. But Gerald Segal warns east Asia that it should not believe its own myth of a Pacific century: economic growth will slow and social and strategic problems will multiply. He also warns the west that it has no real friends in Asia

by Gerald Segal / June 20, 1996 / Leave a comment
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Published in June 1996 issue of Prospect Magazine

There are less than 1,500 days before the Pacific century-a century, we are told, which will be dominated by the economies and societies of Asian Pacific countries. Europeans have had their century or two of power; Americans might just be able to hang on for a bit longer if they turn their attention to their Pacific prospects.

Sounds silly? Well, partly. There will be no such thing as a Pacific century; but what is taking place in east Asia has important implications for Britain and the rest of the world. Europe and east Asia had their first-ever summit meeting in Bangkok in March which suggests, if nothing else, that Europeans are moved by this new challenge.

The Pacific century argument is based on impressive statistics. Many east Asian states have achieved rates of growth two and three times those of European or North American countries at equivalent stages of development. The combined GDP of east Asia now accounts for roughly one third of world GDP. The world economy is now divided between three main poles: east Asia, North America and Europe.

HOW NEW IS THE PACIFIC century?

But the Pacific century argument is built on several half truths and dubious assumptions. First, “thinking Pacific” is hardly new. The idea of a Pacific century was first touted by William Seward, the mid-19th century American secretary of state who bought Alaska from Russia. By the end of the 19th century, the states of Asia accounted for one third of world GDP-the same as today. The 20th century, far from being the Pacific century, was an American century or, rather, another version of a western century. Pacific euphoria began to grow again as the cold war came to an end and people searched for a new image to describe the future international order. But just as the notion of east Asian supremacy began to acquire popular appeal, voices began to warn that eastern growth had its limits. When Bill Emmott (now editor of The Economist) wrote The Sun Also Sets in 1988,…

YOU’VE HIT THE LIMIT

You have now reached your limit of 3 free articles in the last 30 days.
But don’t worry! You can get another 7 articles absolutely free, simply by entering your email address in the box below.

When you register we’ll also send you a free e-book—Writing with punch—which includes some of the finest writing from our archive of 22 years. And we’ll also send you a weekly newsletter with the best new ideas in politics and philosophy of culture, which you can of course unsubscribe from at any time







Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

12459509315c6e7b351eb887.33922988

Go to comments

Related articles

Theresa May’s “deal” would not be Brexit at all
Ruth Lea / November 21, 2018
The draft withdrawal agreement would severely curtail the advantages of leaving
Ten years since the Lehman collapse, remember how it all unravelled?
George Magnus / September 10, 2018
The worst thing is that another economic shock could take us back to the brink
Share with friends
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Comments

No comments yet

Prospect's free newsletter

The big ideas that are shaping our world—straight to your inbox. PLUS a free e-book and 7 articles of your choosing on the Prospect website.

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information. Click here to learn more about these purposes and how we use your data. You will be able to opt-out of further contact on the next page and in all our communications.

This Month's Magazine

Perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus.

Prospect is the leading magazine of ideas. Each month it is packed with the finest writing on politics, culture, economics and ideas. Subscribe today and join the debate.

Subscribe

Most Popular

  • Read
  • Commented

This proposal for breaking the Brexit deadlock deserves serious consideration

Did the SDP really split the left in 1983?

The Duel: Has modern architecture ruined Britain?

The invigorating strangeness of Friedrich Nietzsche

What the row over Winston Churchill's legacy is really about

The Conservative Party has a problem—it’s no longer conservative

5 Comments

The impact of Brexit on services has not received nearly enough attention

2 Comments

Even if Britain stays in Europe, we need a new constitutional settlement

2 Comments

If May's deal is in flames, Labour should not seek to put out the fire

2 Comments

The naïve optimism of Liam Fox

2 Comments

About this author

Gerald Segal
Gerald Segal is senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and director of the UK Economic and Social Research Council's Pacific Asia Programme.
More by this author

More by Gerald Segal

Crisis, what crisis?
February 20, 1999
A Western theme
February 20, 1998
Tigers at bay
October 20, 1997

Next Prospect events

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Diarmaid MacCulloch

    London, 2019-05-20

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Sue Prideaux

    2019-04-15

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Andrew Roberts

    2019-03-14

See more events

Sponsored features

  • The future of transport: taking Britain into the fast lane

  • Reforming the pension system to work for the many

  • Putting savers in the driving seat: getting the pensions dashboard right

  • To fix the housing crisis we need fresh thinking

  • Tata Steel UK: Driving innovation for the future of mobility

PrimeTime

The magazine is owned and supported by the Resolution Group, as part of its not-for-profit, public interest activities.

Follow us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • RSS

Editorial

Editor: Tom Clark
Deputy Editor: Steve Bloomfield
Managing Editor (Arts & Books): Sameer Rahim
Head of Digital: Stephanie Boland
Deputy Digital Editor (Political Correspondent): Alex Dean
Creative Director: Mike Turner
Production Editor & Designer: Chris Tilbury
US Writer-at-Large: Sam Tanenhaus

Commercial

Commercial Director: Alex Stevenson
Head of Marketing: Paul Mortimer
Marketing and Circulations Executive: James Hawkins
Programme Coordinator: Oliver James Ward
Head of Advertising Sales: Adam Kinlan 020 3372 2934
Senior Account Manager: Dominic Slonecki 0203 372 2972

  • Home
  • Advertising
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Acceptable Use Policy
© Prospect Publishing Limited
×
Login
Login with your subscriber account:
You need a valid subscription to login.
I am
Remember Me


Forgotten password?

Or enter with social networking:
Login to post comments using social media accounts.
  • With Twitter
  • Connect
  • With Google +
×
Register Now

Register today and access any 7 articles on the Prospect’s website for FREE in the next 30 days..
PLUS find out about the big ideas that will shape our world—with Prospect’s FREE newsletter sent to your inbox. We'll even send you our e-book—Writing with punch—with some of the finest writing from the Prospect archive, at no extra cost!

Not Now, Thanks

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

×
You’ve got full access!

It looks like you are a Prospect subscriber.

Prospect subscribers have full access to all the great content on our website, including our entire archive.

If you do not know your login details, simply close this pop-up and click 'Login' on the black bar at the top of the screen, then click 'Forgotten password?', enter your email address and press 'Submit'. Your password will then be emailed to you.

Thank you for your support of Prospect and we hope that you enjoy everything the site has to offer.

This site uses cookies to improve the user experience. By using this site, you agree that we can set and use these cookies. For more details on the cookies we use and how to manage them, see our Privacy and Cookie Policy.