With the European constitution on hold it could hardly be said that Britain's minister for Europe, Geoff Hoon, has been overworked. But the lack of anything much to do has increased Hoon's frustration and exacerbated his poisonous relations with the foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett. These got off to a bad start when, after the reshuffle in which he was appointed, Hoon emerged from Downing Street to tell Sky News that his new job as Europe minister was a cabinet post. In fact, while Hoon can attend cabinet, he had been demoted to a minister of state. Though Beckett reminds all and sundry that she is the boss, Hoon tends to ignore the hierarchy by, for example, clearing his speeches through Downing Street while neglecting to send a copy to the foreign secretary. The two ministers speak as little as possible and make a point of travelling back to London separately from the same meetings in Brussels.
To add to the tension, Hoon has abandoned any residual loyalty to Tony Blair and become an open supporter of Gordon Brown. Beckett is left with the unenviable job of trying to defend Blairite policy, such as on Iraq. Officials whinge about both ministers, though they are particularly critical of Beckett, who, they believe, has failed to get the measure of the job and seems obsessed by a preoccupation of her old job as environment secretary: climate change. Diplomats caught in the crossfire do their best to keep their heads down and to take a philosophical view, knowing that there are only a few months to go before Brown arrives in No 10 and shakes things up.
In the short term, however, things can only get worse. The German EU presidency is determined to revive discussions on the constitution and the future of Europe. The first step in this process will be at the 50th anniversary of the signing of the treaty of Rome in March. The Germans plan not only an elaborate birthday bash but also a declaration that will stress the continuing relevance of the EU to its citizens. Then, after the French presidential elections in April and May, Berlin will ratchet up the pressure for a decision on the constitution ahead of the EU summit in June. Initially the Germans had promised simply to produce a timetable for action on the constitution. But now they are making it clear that their June EU summit will produce proposals that are as concrete as possible on the detail.
Sadly for the foreign office, the person who will be doing all the real negotiating between now and then will be neither Beckett nor Hoon but the man appointed by Downing Street as the main interlocutor with Berlin. He is Kim Darroch, Blair's intelligent and urbane EU policy adviser, who has been named as "sherpa" for the constitution discussions before he moves, in the autumn, to be the British ambassador to the EU.
Franco-German jostling
Even before the French have decided who will be their president, a large question mark hangs over future relations between Paris and Berlin. Both main contenders in the French presidential elections, Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, have criticised the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), suggesting that the Frankfurt-based institution is insufficiently attuned to the continent's need to boost growth. Over the last few years, Germany's adherence to the letter of the law on the euro has been less than perfect. When its budget deficit exceeded the 3 per cent ceiling for three consecutive years, it mobilised political support to avoid being disciplined. But threats to the independence of the ECB are another thing. When the bank was set up, its strict, inflation-busting statute reflected German determination that the institution should be built in the image of the Bundesbank. Since then a couple of things have changed. The eurogroup (now comprising 13 countries) has a full-time chairman, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, who is supposed to liaise with the president of the ECB. Meanwhile the ECB president is a Frenchman, Jean-Claude Trichet. The Germans point out that, despite the high value of the euro against the dollar, their exports are booming. They have even accused their French counterparts of using the single currency as a scapegoat for economic problems created in France. And as for the independence of the ECB, there will, comes the message from Berlin, be absolutely no compromise.
Merkel mania
It may be an exaggeration to say that the EU is in the grip of Merkel mania, but the German chancellor remains the star of European politics, at least until the French elect a new president. In part this is a reflection of the weakness of the other big EU governments: France awaits its new president, in Britain, Blair is a lame duck, and in Italy and Poland, coalition governments are fractious and fragile. Under mounting criticism over her domestic record and notably short on charisma, Merkel still manages to impress Europeans. Her secret is a combination of a down-to-earth approach, intelligence and an impressive attention to detail. Even on the most obscure issues, the German chancellor retains a formidable grasp of facts and figures. Questioned recently on the prospect of more countries joining the eurozone, Merkel was able to give a detailed and nuanced reply that even referred to the problem of the high inflation rate in Malta.
