The race to come last
So Britain will finally have a referendum - but about the constitution, not the euro. British officials in Brussels, although talking bravely of winning the argument over Europe, are hoping that somebody else will lose it first. If a British referendum is held some time after the next election - safely in the second half of 2005 or later - the hope is that the constitution will already have been given the thumbs down somewhere else, saving the British from the odium of scuppering the great document. The only snag is that all the other countries that might say no have had the same idea. A Polish diplomat says, "whatever happens, we are definitely planning to vote last." The Irish and Danes are in no hurry to rush to the polls either. Perhaps we could all vote on the same day - a bit like conspirators in a murder who all agree to plunge the dagger in at the same time, so that nobody can tell who has struck the fatal blow.
Is the EU a Catholic plot?
In his magnum opus on Britain and Europe, This Blessed Plot, the late Hugo Young recorded the traditional British suspicion that European integration was a "Catholic conspiracy, orchestrated from the Vatican." According to Young this suspicion was expressed at various times by Ernie Bevin, Denis Healey and Margaret Thatcher. If the iron lady is still toying with this conspiracy theory, she might feel vindicated by the news that one of her former senior advisers on the EU, Stephen Wall, is to retire early as the top Europe man in Downing Street to take up a new job as an adviser to Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, the Archbishop of Westminster. Meanwhile, John Kerr - who, like Wall, was once Britain's ambassador to the EU - is apparently thinking about celebrating the completion of his work (guiding Val?ry Giscard d'Estaing's hand as he wrote the European constitution) by doing the pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela. The idea that Catholics are natural pro-Europeans is one that finds some favour in Brussels. It is, for example, held by Elmar Brok, the German politician (and Catholic), who also played a role in the drafting of the European constitution. Jacques Delors was noted for his religious piety. And as for Robert Schuman, well, he is well on his way to beatification. But before the conspiracy theory builds up too much steam, it should be noted that while many of Britain's most prominent pro-Europeans are Catholics, so are some of the most famous Europhobes - Bill Cash, William Rees-Mogg and Charles Moore.
Our sceptic in Baghdad
Britain's top man in Baghdad is well used to Brussels rituals. Before moving to Iraq as Jeremy Greenstock's deputy in March, David Richmond was Britain's ambassador to the EU's political and security committee, which is meant to run EU foreign policy. Richmond, an Arabist by training, took over from Greenstock earlier this year. But the British government has just announced that he will be replaced by a new British ambassador when the handover of power to the Iraqis takes place on 30th June. This move may be partly a response to accusations from Michael Howard that Britain has too low a profile in Baghdad. But it might even come as something of a relief to Richmond. His colleagues in Brussels recall that he was distinctly sceptical of the case for war. He believed that an invasion of Iraq might swiftly provoke a nationalist backlash against the occupiers. How wrong he was!
Watch out, here comes Albania
Now that the ten new entrants to the EU are all but safely inside - formal accession takes place on 1st May - they are in the delightful position of being able to condescend to the countries that still aspire to join the EU. The Slovakians recently hosted a conference on the "wider Europe," which turned into a beauty contest for countries in the European waiting room. And boy, are there a lot of them. Among the eager contestants parading in Bratislava were the prime ministers of Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and Romania - as well as the presidents of Georgia and Azerbaijan and the foreign ministers of Armenia and Bosnia (the Serbian prime minister was detained by an outbreak of fighting in Kosovo). The pitches of these would-be members were remarkably similar - "You may not regard us as Europeans, but in fact we are. I refer you to our long history of Christianity, wine-making, clog-dancing and other typically European activities. What is more, if you do not let us in to the EU, our country will rapidly implode and the entire population will move west as refugees." As it happens, things are not looking too sunny for those hoping for a rapid further wave of EU enlargement. The Romanian assumption that they will join in 2007 is being cast into doubt in Brussels, which might imperil Bulgaria's better-prepared bid to achieve membership in the same year. The Turkish hope of opening negotiations at the beginning of 2005, which seemed to be going well, has now been put seriously into doubt by the recent objections expressed by the ruling UMP in France. Still, all these problems out in the real world do not appear to dent the enthusiasm or confidence of the countries at the back of the queue to join. At the Bratislava conference, Fatos Nanos, the prime minister of Albania, emerged from his heavily armoured Mercedes to tell delegates - "Some people say Albanian membership is 15-20 years off. I tell you, it will be much sooner than that." It sounded vaguely like a threat.
