Blair's new rivals for president
Just as Tony Blair gets interested in becoming the first president of the European council, the field of potential rivals has begun to expand. The most obvious alternative to Blair has always been Jean-Claude Juncker, the chain-smoking bon vivant and premier of Luxembourg. Blair's most prominent backer, Nicolas Sarkozy, has been careful to praise Juncker too. Indeed, some conspiracy theorists believe Juncker to be the French president's top choice. Their logic is that the frontrunner for top EU jobs rarely wins in the end. Hence, by putting Blair's name up in lights, Sarkozy may not be doing the former British premier any favours.
But Juncker's candidacy has problems too. An ardent integrationist and close student of French and German politics, he has the unmistakable feel of a man of the 1990s, the decade in which he came to power in Luxembourg. His last go at running the European council came in 2005, when Luxembourg held the rotating presidency. This ended with the collapse of crucial negotiations for the EU's budget for 2007-13. On that occasion, Juncker thought Blair's threat to block the deal was a bluff because Blair would pay a high political price at home for stopping Europe in its tracks—hardly a perceptive reading of British politics.
Although London has no veto, it will do all it can to block Juncker's appointment because of his integrationist beliefs. Moreover, Juncker hardly reflects the political centre of gravity of an EU of 27. One man who does is José Manuel Barroso, the European commission president. Although it is widely assumed that he wants a second term at his job, he is not discouraging the theory that he could defect to the council presidency. The creation of a new European council president and of a high representative for foreign affairs—who will also be vice-president of the commission—could leave the commission president looking like a spare part. But the timing of the appointment would be tricky for Barroso. The president of the council is likely to be chosen this December, six to nine months before his mandate at the commission could be surrendered gracefully.
A host of former European leaders, including Austria's Wolfgang Schüssel and Poland's Aleksander Kwasniewski, see themselves as possible contenders. But one senior diplomat says that when EU heads of government have previously been called on to make appointments, they "look around the table to see if there is anyone among them who could do the job. Only if they fail do they go outside." Such a process would throw up a couple of low-key, technocratic operators: Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark or Bertie Ahern of Ireland, for example. But if you want someone with genuine international presence, no baggage from Iraq and an unblemished reputation within the EU, look no further than the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. She faces elections in Germany in 2009. The question is whether by December her poll ratings will be bad enough for her to consider an early exit from German politics—for the greater good of Europe, of course?
The commission's unseemly scramble
With Silvio Berlusconi expected to win the looming Italian elections, the country's European commissioner, Franco Frattini, seems destined for high office in Rome. Some say Frattini has already been promised the job of interior minister. But even before the commissioner has packed his bags, an unseemly scramble is under way to replace him. Finding a Berlusconi nominee suitable for the job of justice and home affairs commissioner is not going to be easy. Barroso has not forgotten the crisis at the start of his term over Berlusconi's first nominee, Rocco Buttiglione, who was eventually forced to step aside after describing homosexuality as a sin. So there is much debate about using Frattini's impending departure to effect a mini-reshuffle of the college of commissioners. No country has been more enthusiastic about such an idea than France, whose man at the commission, Jacques Barrot, has been toiling away in the unglamorous transport portfolio and hankers after a bigger job—like justice and home affairs.
Slovenia's French lessons
Two months in, Slovenia's presidency of the EU has been dominated by worries about Kosovo's declaration of independence, an issue where the country's knowledge of the region has been put to good use. But what about Slovenia's stewardship of the rest of the agenda? One EU foreign minister notes with surprise that important papers have been circulated in polished French rather than English, although Slovenian diplomats are generally better schooled in the latter. Either the language skills in Ljubljana have improved dramatically, he says, or they are importing papers lock, stock and barrel from the Quai d'Orsay.
Prince Charles and Barroso bond
While in Brussels, Prince Charles discovered an unexpected bond with Barroso. During their meeting, Barroso alluded to an encounter with Bono at which the rock star described Barroso's marketing as "crap." "I met Bono as well," replied the prince, "and he told me my marketing was crap too."
