World

Afghanistan: reasons to stay

January 02, 2011
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The coming year marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the Afghan campaign. Each year is tediously claimed to be the “crucial year” in the war; the same was being said back in 2007 when I first served as a British captain there. But 2011 might well be such a year. The key Nato contributing nations are financially and politically squeezed, the Dutch are being followed out by the Canadians and potentially the Poles, and now Britain is floating the start of a drawdown of troops by the end of the year.

This could be a mistake. Yes, support for foreign troops there is low, and trust in the Karzai government lower. But there are causes for cautious optimism. The Afghan national security forces grow apace: more than two thirds of the violence occurs in just four of the 34 provinces, and in those regions the hugely increased troop numbers are making a difference. And Afghanistan’s economic fortunes are rising—GDP growth is up 20 per cent, with continued double digit growth forecast for next year, infrastructure projects starting to bite, 5m children in school compared to only 1m in 2002, and poppy cultivation at its lowest since 2005.

With things so finely balanced, western states need to hold their nerve. 2011 could be decisive either way, but a race for the door would be catastrophic.

Patrick Hennessey is the author of “The Junior Officer’s Reading Club”