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Is the race tightening? Decoding the most significant parts of YouGov’s new election MRP survey

The latest information raises the prospect of a surge in tactical voting tomorrow

By Peter Kellner  

Is the Conservative lead slipping away? Photo: Hannah McKay/PA Archive/PA Images

Not surprisingly, the second big YouGov MRP survey is attracting as much attention as the first, two weeks ago. It has reduced its headline projection of the Conservative majority from a comfortable 68 to a nervy 28. Why? In some ways the answer is less dramatic than it would seem at first sight—but in one way, of potentially huge significance.

The big picture—Conservative support nationally unchanged on 43 per cent, Labour up two points to 34 per cent,…

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