The current war in the Middle East should be a wake-up call for this country. On top of what we have seen in Ukraine, it should remind us in the United Kingdom of our own vulnerabilities. There are many.
The Strategic Defence Review (SDR), where I was lead reviewer last year, made the situation crystal clear in its opening paragraphs. “The UK and its allies are once again directly threatened by other states with advanced military forces.” These words and indeed the whole review were endorsed by the prime minister and the government.
Keir Starmer went even further in his speech to the Munich Security Conference in February: “Nato has warned that Russia could be ready to use military force against the alliance by the end of the decade.” That, I remind you bluntly, is in three years’ time. Sobering, you might think.
We three reviewers—a former defence secretary, a former general and a current foreign policy guru—were hired to look at every aspect of UK defence, which we did with the aid of more than 150 experts and an unprecedented public consultation. We concluded that we were underprepared, underinsured and under daily attack. We said that if our recommendations were implemented then we might be prepared for a peer opponent, a Russia or a China, in 10 years’ time. We do not have 10 years in today’s world.
Starmer went on: “Time and again, leaders have looked the other way, only re-arming when disaster is upon them. This time, it must be different. Because all of the warning signs are there.” True enough, but what was missing in that striking call was the money to actually do the re-arming.
The current debate about money misses an important point. The overdue Defence Investment Plan will, if it survives the vandalism of nonmilitary experts in the Treasury, show where the existing money will be spent and how the SDR will be carried forward. What it will not do is make the fundamental transformation proposed in the review.
We can’t do business as usual. Our adversaries don’t think that way, and we can’t afford to either. Public attention is focused on the planes, tanks and ships we are short of—but they are the baubles on the Christmas tree. We need to focus on the tree itself.
We are simply not ready, and we need to rebuild war readiness to deter any possible adversary. Deterrence is less expensive than war—as Vladimir Putin, whose war economy is consuming huge amounts of money and lives, will eventually find out. Our country made its last payment for the Second World War in 2016, and that was for a war we won.
Building deterrence will be neither quick nor cheap and the public needs to accept that uncomfortable fact, or face the consequences of not being safe in a very turbulent world.
In the review, we proposed an integrated force (with all four services acting in crisis as one) with connected digital systems, maximising their lethality. We have to urgently address not just the shortages of kit but crises in logistics, engineering, cyber, ammunition, training and medical resources. There is a political consensus that our military is hollowed out. Enacting the recommendations of the review will rectify that, but not quickly, even if a serious start has been made.
But, since others are modernising and re-arming, we need to abandon the lethargic thought processes of the post-Cold War period. We must move, like the Ukrainians, at wartime pace. As the review says, “More broadly, the West’s long-held military advantage is being eroded as other countries modernise and expand their armed forces at speed.”
Recent events have shown that the role and priorities of the United States have shifted, and will never be the same again. Eighteen months ago, a national conversation about defence was promised by the new government. It is long past time to get it started. British national security and safety is in peril, and we need the whole country to wake up.
