Using similar techniques and data to that which called the last election right, I’m mapping the 2019 battleground to empower progressive Britainby Paul Hilder / November 24, 2019 / Leave a comment
At the mid-way point of this fateful election campaign, my firm Datapraxis is publishing what we believe to be the first really authoritative estimates of the state of the race.
For anyone who worries about Boris Johnson unleashed, there is both good news and bad news. Using the largest polling sample available, and mapping the dynamics of different groups of voters on to every seat, we currently project a 48-seat Conservative majority.
As things stand, the Tories look set to rise from the 317 seats they won in 2017 to 349. Labour, meanwhile, could crash from 262 to 213, perilously close to the 209 it won in the wipeout of 1983. After all the hype and their early hopes, the Lib Dems will add just two net seats to their 2017 base of 12. By contrast, the SNP could sweep Scotland, rising from 35 to 49 of the 59 seats.
If this outcome comes to pass, it would be a chest-thumping victory for Johnson and the hard Brexiteer strategems of Dominic Cummings. They would have their mandate to “get Brexit done,” and be liberated to pursue their whims and fantasies in the new Parliament—perhaps even taking the UK out of Europe without a trade deal by the end of next year.
But there are two flies in the ointment for the Johnson gang. The first is that seven of their most prominent members could lose their seats. They include: Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton), former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), the ever-seething Europhobe John Redwood (Wokingham), the “illiberal” Philip Davies (Shipley), former London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park), and European Research Group Chair, Steve Baker (Wycombe), together with—at a stretch—the vainglorious but vulnerable Prime Minister himself (Uxbridge and South Ruislip).
The report we publish this weekend, “Seven Seats That Could Change The Election,” lays out how tactical voting and increases in voter registration and turnout could contribute to some or all of them being defeated, even if the Tories win a majority. Raab and Duncan Smith are in particular trouble, while Goldsmith seems almost certain to lose.
The second and more important fly in the ointment for the Tories is that similar dynamics are replicated in almost 100…