How did Boris Johnson become prime minister? It wasn’t a consequence of his inspirational policies or vision for the country, or because his party valued him as an impressive statesman. It certainly wasn’t in virtue of his honesty or integrity. The Conservatives spied one quality alone: his ability to win.
Johnson’s party has embraced that quality when the evidence backs it up. Things may get trickier when it starts not to. Look beyond any bounce from the reshuffle and the cracks are plainly visible. Indeed, after eight months of uniform, healthy poll leads—and a sense that Labour was falling out of contention—Opinium recently placed the parties at level pegging, while last week YouGov found Labour two points ahead. Granular data recently suggested that in an election, there could be enough MPs from opposition parties to unseat the current government.
The most surprising element of this is that so many people should be surprised. It is not just that Labour was regularly scoring poll leads at the end of last year. It is not even the uniquely volatile state of Britain’s recent politics. It is that Boris Johnson is—and always has been—beatable.
The prime minister’s entire shtick hinges on his electoral invincibility. His genius has been to craft a self-fulfilling prophecy from raw confidence alone. And yet we have short memories. Johnson was widely unpopular in the first few months of his premiership, regularly plumbing depths in the approval figures of around -25 points. He was lucky to face a deeply unpopular leader of the Opposition. And if he had gone to the polls on the platform of no deal, as he easily might have done in late 2019, his party could have lost the election.
And yet Johnson’s weakness is not superficial or academic, a matter of character judgment or historical analysis. It is more concrete than that. Numerous political factors may now threaten him.
The recent wobble in the polls appears to have been triggered by the announcement on National Insurance. While voters support reforming social care, the NI hike has proved an unpopular way to fund it. This has been a two-pronged backlash. The left has effectively painted it as a tax on the lowest paid, which leaves wealthy landowners and investors almost unscathed. The right has depicted it as socialism.
Worse may come. Experts have pointed out that the reforms do not actually change social care provision very much at all. What happens when the problem is not, in fact, fixed, and the NHS is still on its knees? Johnson is the master of kicking cans down the road, but he cannot convince electorates to disbelieve their own eyes.
Then there is Covid-19. A large proportion of the population was sceptical about the extent of the summer unlocking, and may not forgive Johnson if this winter sees a new surge in cases and hospitalisations. If the PM has to introduce drastic new restrictions, meanwhile, he could alienate many people who were previously supportive. The public has given the government the benefit of the doubt during the pandemic, but voters’ patience is not infinite.
The third great question is Brexit. So far, the government has avoided scrutiny and blamed shortages on Covid. A squeamish media has not held it to account. But the problems are stacking up just as shelves are emptying out. People will notice if they cannot stock up for Christmas or access routine blood tests. Even if they do not blame Brexit, they will blame someone.
Johnson, of course, hopes they will blame the EU. Many commentators are now suggesting that the next election will once again be about Brexit, and that Johnson will replay his greatest hits. And yet even this golden goose may run out of eggs. If Brexit was really done in 2019 then it does not need to be done again in 2023 or 2024. The EU will not feature on the ballot paper. And voters—particularly liberal conservatives in the little-discussed “Blue Wall” of the south and west—may tire of the Conservatives’ opportunistic nationalism.
“A party which assumes a natural privilege to rule eventually takes its subjects for granted”
Polling, of course, goes up and down, and political volatility now seems locked in. Johnson may well find his reshuffle shores up the numbers temporarily. But he cannot change everything, and certain factors are beyond his control.
At the next election, voters will ask themselves if life seems better or worse than before. Much of this will come down to economics. Inflation has just seen its biggest recorded monthly increase since records began, 24 years ago. The economy will still be battling the aftershocks of both Brexit and Covid.
It may also come down to cockiness and complacency. The Tories are starting to make mistakes. Last year’s battles with Marcus Rashford over free school meals resonated. This summer’s initial refusal to condemn criticism of England’s footballers dramatically backfired when ministers found themselves on the wrong side of the culture wars. A party which assumes a natural privilege to rule eventually takes its subjects for granted.
The Conservatives have nothing to fear if the Opposition cannot touch them. And yet here, too, are promising signs. Keir Starmer is not a much loved figure and lacks vital charisma, but he may finally be growing braver. He produced effective attack lines on the National Insurance rise and at the TUC conference this week offered a range of progressive policies on work, including the end of zero-hours contracts and higher sick pay. The Labour leadership is still struggling for an audience and momentum, but will find encouragement (and perhaps a spur to still-bolder interventions) if such a policy offering attracts popular support and helps to reconcile the party’s warring factions.
Ultimately, the Opposition needs to believe less in Johnson and more in itself. The greatest trap in politics is to believe your opponent’s hype and fight on their terms. If Labour accepts the basic proposition that Johnson has the Midas touch, it burnishes that image and does his work for him. It is not necessary and more importantly, not true.
The greatest danger for Johnson is that he will be found out not by the Opposition or the electorate, but his own party. The Conservatives have form in dispatching once-popular leaders. The party’s only real constant is ruthlessness in pursuit of victory.
Like Samson, Johnson’s power is contained in one feature alone, and someone may yet cut his hair. The moment the vulnerability seems embedded, he will be forced out. Nothing is predictable in politics, and no PM has had more political luck than this one. But in the end luck cannot trump events. If the electoral shine starts to come off, Johnson’s party may dispatch him before the country even has the chance.
