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A Brexit probability index—tracking what will happen next

The most likely outcome is a “cryonic” Brexit with an endless transition

By David Henig  

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab. Photo: Peter Nicholls/PA Wire/PA Images

Britain will be leaving the European Union in March next year, yet we still don’t have certainty on what happens next. Recent documents issued by the government remind us of the risk that we leave without any deal, with tariffs and numerous other barriers imposed on day one. On the other hand, those campaigning for a “people’s vote” believe momentum is gathering behind their cause.

There are thus numerous dimensions to the question of what happens next. Do we definitely…

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