Had sterling not depreciated and the economy continued to grow at its previous rate, real household disposable income might have been 2 per cent higher than nowby Garry Young / November 8, 2017 / Leave a comment
Much has been made in the media of new estimates, published in the National Institute Economic Review, suggesting that leaving the European Union without a deal and moving to World Trade Organisation rules—the so called “hard Brexit” scenario—would add £930 to annual household bills in the future, due to tariffs being imposed on EU imports.
The NIESR’s new UK forecast, published in the same review, shows that before any kind of Brexit—soft or hard—has occurred the uncertain process of preparing for leaving is having an adverse effect on our economy. And the impact is being felt by ordinary households to the tune of £600 a year.
Having been one of the fastest growing advanced economies ahead of the referendum last year, the UK economy is now beginning to slow as others pick up the pace. It is estimated to have grown by 1.5 per cent in the year to the third quarter of 2017. This represents a loss of momentum from annual rates of GDP growth of 2 to 3 per cent achieved in the years leading up to the referendum.