Donald Trump put all his political capital into one basket. Standing next to someone in an Easter Bunny costume at the White House on 6th April—just a day before he threatened the annihilation of “a whole civilisation” and a day after he said “Open the F**kin’ Strait, you crazy b*stards”—he bragged about eggs. It was the annual Easter Egg Roll event, after all. He reminisced of his first days in office: “they were screaming at me, ‘what am I going to do about eggs?’ The price was so high, it was four times higher than it was the year before. I said… let me think about it.” To cut a rambling story short—the price of eggs, albeit largely thanks to bird flu waning, came down.
The Iran war he started, however, is set to push those all-important egg prices back up again. And all food prices, for that matter. The poultry industry relies heavily on imported feed and supplements shipped through the Persian Gulf. The United States Department of Agriculture now expects food prices in the country to rise by 3.6 per cent across 2026. If that holds true, they will increase more than in 2020, when the pandemic hamstrung supply chains.
All this, of course, is far more serious than eggs and bunnies. Virtually all synthetic nitrogen fertiliser (99 per cent) is derived from fossil fuels. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), while the global food sector had largely readjusted to the disruptions of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the US-Israeli bombing of Iran introduces new challenges which could eclipse both, with “the potential for a sustained, major disruption in fertilizer supplies that would threaten global agriculture production and food security.”
Up to 30 per cent of the raw materials for the global fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas is a key feedstock for ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilisers, and so the gas-rich Persian Gulf is a big production hub for nitrogen and phosphate, two of the three primary fertiliser nutrients (potash is the third). According to IFPRI, Gulf countries convert a substantial share of their natural gas into ammonia for export, which, like natural gas, is transported in liquid form (LNG) by ships through the Strait. “Thus, regional ammonia exports are doubly vulnerable—to damage to Gulf LNG production facilities and to shipping disruptions in the Strait”, say the IFPRI.
European fertiliser producers have requested government support for the industry and farmers, while the majority of African nations are reportedly over-dependent on imports of the stuff, and as a result are exposed to external market shocks and volatile prices. Since the Doge-led annihilation of USAID, there is also less of a safety net for countries that might run short of food.
A falloff in agricultural production, and thus a sharp spike in food prices, tends to closely track fuel spikes, but with a time lag. As Raj Patel, University of Texas professor and author, puts it: “When the Strait of Hormuz closes, here’s what happens: Energy prices spike immediately. Fertilizer prices follow. Reduced harvests come a season later.” Although on 17th April Iran announced that the Strait would reopen as part of the ceasefire agreed a week before, an air bubble is already making its way through the veins of the world economy.
The International Rice Research Institute warns that if shipping disruptions continue, “the energy and fertilizer channels may become much more consequential… for Asia’s next crop cycle.” The World Food Programme has estimated that an extra 45m people could be pushed into acute food insecurity if the Iran conflict does not end by June.
There is growing recognition that the UK similarly needs to build greater food resilience. (I wrote about it in my August 2025 column.) The National Preparedness Commission, led by emeritus professor of food policy Tim Lang, makes a compelling case for shorter supply chains and local, diversified sources of production; steps that could help protect our food system from the whims of warmongering world leaders. Vicki Hird, strategic lead on agriculture at the Wildlife Trusts, has argued that transitioning to regenerative farming can cut nitrogen pollution by 70 per cent and increase yields by 30 per cent.
According to Patel, “genuinely transformative alternatives” to fossil-fuel fertilisers also do exist. Sustainable, nature-inclusive forms of farming can greatly reduce the need for synthetic fertilisers through composting, crop rotation, planting crops alongside one another and the careful integration of livestock. One programme in India, Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Natural Farming, is transitioning six million farmers to this kind of work. The IFPRI also recommends farmers shift toward less fertiliser-intensive crops such as legumes, where possible.
Regenerative agriculture could help insulate countries from future fertiliser crises, just as investing in renewable energy has protected some economies, including the UK and Spain, from the worst of the current fossil fuel crisis. However, it’s a long-term project, and relative to renewables, has barely begun: the UK’s investment in offshore wind is already a quarter of a century old. No one can do anything about the food price spike that will come in autumn-winter 2026.
That spike will, among other things, come back to bite Trump. CNBC makes the link explicit: “Two years earlier, President Donald Trump won re-election after hammering the high costs of eggs, bacon and other grocery store staples. Now he and the Republican Party may be faced with even higher food prices as they try to retain control of Congress in this year’s midterm elections.” Wouldn’t it be ironic if it was eggs, after all, that brought Trump tumbling down.
