It seems pretty clear that Donald Trump would betray Ukraine if he could. He admires Vladimir Putin and is aiming for a grand deal with the Russian dictator, sharing future economic spoils between them. Tough diplomatic negotiations are not the forte of his property developer buddy Steve Witkoff, a complete diplomatic novice, who is his interlocutor with both Putin and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. The Trump-Putin Alaska summit is the fruit of Witkoff’s audience with Putin last week, despite Russian military escalation and no apparent concessions by Putin in his territorial conquests.
By contrast, Trump has little time for Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader isn’t even being invited to Alaska. Nor are any European leaders. Ukraine’s independence and European aspirations matter little to Trump.
The obvious, terrifying analogy is the 1938 Munich conference, where Adolf Hitler and Neville Chamberlain carved up Czechoslovakia in its leaders’ absence. Chamberlain claimed this would avoid war and preserve an independent Czech state. A few months later Hitler came for the rest of Czechoslovakia, then for Poland too, and war followed.
However, there are big differences between Munich 1938 and Alaska 2025, and they are strongly in Ukraine’s favour. The Ukrainians have already been fighting their invader for three and a half years, and with limited western support have kept the Russians out of Kyiv and fourth-fifths of their country. Russia’s economy is tiny and beleaguered, and its military is only able to avoid defeat in Ukraine by means of a huge semi-conscript army which can sustain enormous losses.
If he can retain European support—a very big “if”—then Zelensky is probably strong enough to reject any sellout deal emanating from Alaska, and simply keep on fighting in defiance of the US. This could be a decisive check on Trump veering too pro-Putin in Alaska. A Ukrainian and European rejection of any deal would leave Trump exposed and looking weak. US aid to Kyiv has already been largely withdrawn by Trump, and so far the Europeans have filled the gap. They have the financial means to continue doing so, although the situation will become more perilous if Trump also bans the sale of US equipment.
The European members of Nato and the rest of the European Union are desperately anxious to avoid a choice between Trump and Zelensky. The prospect of a Trump betrayal is nightmarish. It would be an existential European crisis. For if Ukraine is defeated, either immediately or in stages over the coming months, then few doubt that Putin will be in search of the next victim on his borders to maintain his nationalist expansionism. The small Baltic states are especially alarmed.
So Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz are straining every diplomatic sinew to contain Trump. The trouble is, they won’t be in the room. They also don’t have complete control over Zelensky, who will be resistant to any concessions, particularly to recognise the status quo in terms of lost territory.
Let’s hope that Alaska 2025 doesn’t join Munich 1938 in the league of diplomatic infamy. Either way, it promises the same level of drama.
