Complex economic analyses haven't won over the publicby Anand Menon / December 29, 2017 / Leave a comment
Eighteen months on, there is precious little agreement in the British popular debate over the possible economic implications of Brexit. Whatever forecasts of economic pain to come the economists produce, they achieve little if any cut through amongst the people who really count—the politicians and their voters—and for several reasons.
The first is longstanding and—to an extent—helps explain the outcome of the referendum itself as much as debates over its economic aftermath. It was summed up by a female heckler in Newcastle, who asked acerbically “whose GDP” I had in mind when I mentioned forecasts concerning what might happen to the economy in the event of a Leave vote. Grand economic theory had little to say about her life. This speaks to longstanding suspicion of an establishment whose prognostications cannot be trusted, not necessarily because they lie, but simply because the country to which they refer is not the one inhabited by many voters.