The asymmetric election: why Corbyn does not need to win a majority but Johnson does

Just as in asymmetric warfare there is a discrepancy between the rival powers, so in this election campaign there is an asymmetrical political battle underway. Boris Johnson must win an outright parliamentary majority to be able to stay as prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn needs only to secure a hung parliament to be seen as the winner and have a good chance of getting into No 10. The imbalance between the two main party leaders means that victory for either of them will be defined in different ways.

This makes the outcome far more unpredictable than it currently seems. The Conservatives are clearly ahead of Labour in the polls, and Johnson has a significant lead over Corbyn when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister. According to the YouGov “favourability” tracker, the Labour leader has a rating of minus 42 compared with minus six for the Tory leader. Only 22 per cent of voters prefer the idea of Corbyn in Downing Street. But this gives a false impression of the strength of Johnson’s position.

The electorate is more volatile than ever before and there will be huge variations between different constituencies around the country, so the national poll rating may not translate into seats. There are also likely to be high levels of tactical voting, particularly among Remain voters keen to block a hard Brexit. One report this week suggested that almost a third of voters are planning to cast their ballot tactically to keep out a candidate or party they dislike. Even the most optimistic Tories are expecting to lose seats to the SNP in Scotland and to the Liberal Democrats in London and the south east, meaning they need to win the same number and more from Labour in the north and midlands.

And the bar is set higher for Johnson than for Corbyn. The prime minister does not only have to match the Conservative result in 2017, he must do significantly better than Theresa May. He could win the most votes and the most seats in the House of Commons but if he does not have a parliamentary majority then he will almost certainly still lose office. He cannot afford to spend many more months bogged down in Westminster trench warfare, trying to fulfil his “do or die” pledge to deliver Brexit. If he does not have enough loyal Conservative MPs to back him it is hard to see where he finds the parliamentary votes to get his plans through.

Johnson has alienated the Democratic Unionist Party, the Tories’ former confidence and supply agreement partners, by agreeing to put a border down the Irish Sea. This is an absolute point of principle for the DUP and so, however nervous the Unionists might be about a Corbyn government, it is hard to see how the relationship could be restored.

Nicola Sturgeon has made clear that her Scottish Nationalist Party will never prop up a Conservative government in London. One SNP frontbencher told me recently that if the election results in a hung parliament then Corbyn is likely to end up in Downing Street because “we would always side with Labour in the end.”  If the Tories are trounced in Scotland, as many expect following the departure of Ruth Davidson, this will only reinforce the SNP’s determination to join a “progressive alliance” at Westminster against the Conservative Party.

David Cameron formed a coalition with Nick Clegg when he failed to get a majority in 2010 but the Tories’ pledge to “Get Brexit Done” is so completely incompatible with the Liberal Democrats’ overriding commitment to Remain that it is impossible to imagine a power-sharing arrangement working now. Jo Swinson has also been scathing about Johnson personally. Last week she told me she did not think he was morally fit to be prime minister, insisting: “If you don’t care about other human beings that is a morality fail. I find it easy to work with most people but… I have not seen other MPs with such casual disregard for other people’s lives as Boris has displayed.” Even if the Conservative leader offered to hold a second EU referendum—something he has categorically ruled out—it would be politically suicidal for the Liberal Democrats to be seen to be enabling a right-wing Eurosceptic Tory government.

There are no other options. Senior Tories believe their leader will resign if he does not secure a clear victory on 12^th December. “If the Tories don’t have a majority there will be an anti-Conservative majority—no one is going to ally with us,” one former cabinet minister says. “Boris is a brand, he’s not a politician—I’m sure if he doesn’t have a majority he wouldn’t want to stay. He’s been prime minister and he’d want to move on.” This election really is an all or nothing gamble for the prime minister.