58 per cent of Brits think the government has hidden the "true cost" of immigration

As an island nation, Great Britain has long been preoccupied with the comings and goings of its population. Having dominated political life in peaks and troughs for much of the past 60 years, it is not surprising that citizens scrutinise governments’ policies on immigration more fiercely than any other issue.

Over recent years, a potent mix of forces have begun to rapidly catalyse this scepticism towards suspicion, with potentially dangerous consequences. Across the West, traditional parties have lost citizens’ trust in both their capacity to be responsive to public opinion on this issue, and to effectively uphold standards and manage the systems which control immigration.

At the same time, dynamic firebrands and anti-establishment voices from the political fringes have stepped boldly into the foreground, lodging the mainstream parties firmly on the back foot.

As a greater share of citizens have come to see themselves as marginalised from the heart of our political systems, the appetite for alternative sources of information has increased. Cottage industries of conspiracy theories about immigration have sprung up online, many reaching across national borders to depict cultural diversity as an existential threat to Western Christian traditions.

Surveys I have conducted with Opinium for a new report reveal that conspiracy theories about immigration are now mainstream across British society, with 58 per cent of Brits believing their government has both under-estimated and concealed the ‘true costs’ of immigration to taxpayers and society.

Even more disturbing in its democratic implications, 51 per cent of Brits have come to the conclusion that the decision to ‘ignore’ concerns about the pace and scale of immigration must reflect a deliberate policy to enforce diversity on an unwilling public.

42 per cent are convinced of a ‘conspiracy of silence’ around immigration, with the entire nexus of media and political cultures complicit in suppressing the voices of those who have spoken out.

Given the outsize role that immigration has played in our political life over recent years, these findings may not surprise—but they should shock us profoundly. They reflect the collapse of the fundamental contract that stands between citizens and their political representatives, predicated on a degree of mutual trust, respect and dialogue.

With the wolves at the door, liberal politicians appear utterly ill-equipped to regain an authoritative position on immigration, which is hurtling rapidly into an irretrievably polarising place. While social media, tabloids, and culture warriors do their best to fan the flames, it is impossible to ignore the complicity of the centre-right and centre-left parties in laying the groundwork for this pernicious climate to develop.

It must be acknowledged that—however well-intentioned—policy decisions over the past 20 years have sometimes led to the suppression of reports and the selective publication of statistics. Systems have also frequently failed: whether accidentally deporting lawful migrants living peacefully in their communities, or admitting those with criminal backgrounds who go on to re-offend, every sensationally-reported case of human and technical error around border enforcement has heightened emotions and chipped away at trust.

It is also true that many political campaigns have sought to activate divisive narratives, pitting groups of citizens against one another in competition for resources and representation. Compounded together, these acts of political cynicism and policy incompetence have borne profound, long-term consequences.

Conspiracy theories will remain a part of human existence until the end of time. The mainstreaming of conspiracy theories about a critical area of government policy, however, should be seen as an alarming degeneration of our democratic life.

Given the link between conspiracy thinking and extremist behaviour, especially on the issue of cultural diversity and demographic change, we must also take the threats they pose to social cohesion and security seriously. After all, when citizens become resentful, competitive and fearful of one another, the prospects for stable governance are dramatically reduced.

There is an urgent need for traditional parties to truly appreciate the scale of the challenge they face to reclaim a decisive voice against this powerful tide of alternative narratives, histories and evidence. They must demonstrate their sensitivity to public concerns, and their commitment to regaining credibility on immigration policy—a task which can only be achieved by embracing open debate, favouring transparency, and by improving the effectiveness, fairness and security of border control systems.

There is no easy road ahead, but the cost of inaction is simply too great.