World

The inevitable defeat of the "Colombian Obama"

June 07, 2010
Antanas Mockus is said to lack gravitas
Antanas Mockus is said to lack gravitas

A presidential candidate from outside the political mainstream storms the opinion polls, promising change. His name was little-known only months ago, but now crowds of youthful supporters come to see him speak, chanting "yes we can!" Some say he is inexperienced and lacks concrete policies, but it doesn't matter - the man himself is the message. His father was an immigrant to the country that this man now hopes to lead, and he does not belong to the political elite or bear one of its famous surnames. There are people wearing his distinctive T-shirts and wristbands everywhere you go; the country seems ready for this idealist and the reforms he promises. There's even a popular video on YouTube, with a split-screen of musicians in monochrome singing a catchy song about the candidate.

This is not America in 2008 but Colombia in 2010, and the man is not Barack Obama but Antanas Mockus, Green Party candidate and a child of Lithuanian immigrants, who promises to clean up the country's murky politics and provide the "change" that Colombians can believe in.

But there the similarities end. He lacks Obama's good looks and charisma, with a wrinkled face and a full, Amish-style beard clinging to his chin. Nor does he have Obama's talent for stirring up a crowd with rhetoric. At a rally I attended Mockus let others lead the chanting while he stood on stage looking awkward, occasionally waving a pencil—his campaign symbol—in the air.

More importantly, he seems to lack Obama's knack for success. Despite opinion polls placing Mockus neck-and-neck with his main opponent, when election day came round, support melted away. Juan Manuel Santos, a man so deeply embedded in the political elite that he has a former president for a great-uncle and a vice president for a cousin, trounced the outsider. The two candidates will compete in a runoff election on June 20, but the outcome already seems clear. Santos won 47% to Mockus' 22%, and it will be near-impossible to make up the gap.

So why did Colombia's Obama fail to turn his popularity into votes? Unlike his American counterpart, Mockus is trying to succeed a widely revered incumbent, President Uribe, whom the population seems ready to forgive for every new scandal that sticks to his name. Accusations of corruption, spying on government critics, presiding over the murder of civilians by the army, and even allegations that his brother led a paramilitary death squad in the 1990s have done nothing to dent his popularity. The president of eight years' standing is loved for his hardline policies, which have allowed Colombia to shake the title of "kidnap capital of the world". Some of this popularity has rubbed off on Santos, his ally and unofficial heir. When it comes to security Colombians want continuity, not change.

Mockus also failed because Colombia is not America. Insurgents still lurk in the countryside. The urban middle classes may want a new, cleaner politics in which ideas do battle rather than soldiers, but for most Colombians memories of horrific violence are too recent. This intellectual who pledges to clean up politics and respect human rights does not seem strong or ruthless enough to keep the fragile peace.