Starting on Monday, the 21st "conference of the parties"—the annual meeting between all countries who want to take action on climate change, held in Paris—will bring together over 190 nations including the UK, US and EU countries, in an attempt to secure a new deal on global warming. Here's our guide to the important issues, the parties involved and the big moments to watch out for. Who is involved?
While the conference begins with a brief appearance by world leaders including Obama and Xi Jinping, much of the heavy lifting will be done by climate or environment ministers from attending nations, with some foreign ministers also involved, as well as representatives from business and other civilians. Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd will be leading the UK's delegation. Most of the attending countries—which run the gamut from superpowers to small island nations—have published national plans, called "INDCs," to reduce climate change in advance of the talks. Each country will come with its own interests, but countries also form formal and informal blocs at such climate summits. Some of these have economic shared interests, like the Africa Group or the G77 + China, which lobby for a good deal on climate finance. Others share geographical vulnerabilities; the Climate Vulnerable Forum, for example, gives nations particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change a platform to call for mitigation.
What's on the table?
The ultimate aim is an international deal—with unanimous consent—which will limit global warming to a maximum of two degrees by mid century, partly a process of slimming down an
already-produced draft document. Much of the final deal should become legally binding but some aspects, such as some countries' national emissons targets, are unlikely to. That two degree limit was agreed in 2009 at the Copenhagen summit—one of the few positive points to emerge out of a less than fruitful conference. Within this wider intention, there are myriad minor issues. One major question is whether a mutually agreeable "ratchet and review" system, whereby the progress of nations is checked at regular intervals and plans are "ratcheted up" if need be, can be agreed. A deal to boost climate finance—money from rich countries to help poorer countries develop in a sustainable way and keep emissions low—is another contentious area.
What could go wrong?
Any number of things—in an arrangement this complex, which requires unanimous agreement, there are a lot of variables which could head south at any moment. But Tory MP and former member of the Climate Audit Committee Graham Stuart, thinks that chief among them could be negotiations with developing countries turning sour. "If the whole conversation becomes about third world grievance and about recompense and reparation... concessions need to be made into that feeling, but... in terms of having some reparations system, now that's a red line," Stuart said at a briefing in the Commons this week. Otherwise, experts are feeling relatively positive about the summit's prospects, in particular because sparring between the US and China which preceded Copenhagen has been absent this time. China is widely felt to be taking climate change significantly more seriously in the run-up to Paris.
Why should I care?
Because this is possibly our last chance to get things right. If warming hits anything over two degrees by mid-Century (and without action it could easily reach four or six) we're into very dangerous territory. According to Jeremy Oppenheim, a climate economist, speaking at a British Academy event in advance of the summit on Tuesday, to meet the two degree target we need to have reached peak carbon emissions globally within about five years. Given emissions have been rising fairly constantly since 1995, that's a big ask. With primary energy demand increasing by 35 per cent by 2030, we need creative solutions for how to meet the world's growing energy needs without pumping out more carbon, and we need them very soon.
