A decade ago, Nigel Farage became spiritual leader of the Conservative party, when David Cameron conceded a referendum on Brexit which Farage won. A repeat performance is now taking place on the issue of immigration—but this time Farage appears to be taking over the massively weakened Tory party in person as well as in spirit. His latest political vehicle, Reform UK, is fast becoming the main opposition to Labour.
This week’s immigration white paper is akin to the Brexit referendum in that it places Farage’s issue at the centre of British politics, and does so largely on his terms. The argument about whether by using the phrase “island of strangers” Keir Starmer was rhetorically imitating Enoch Powell misses the point that his language far more closely imitates Farage. The Reform leader talks constantly about “taking back control” of the border, and the threat of mass immigration, without tipping into outright racism. Farage has studied Powell closely and is generally adept at drawing the line.
In the Farage template, immigration is now couched by Starmer almost wholly in the language of costs and threats, not benefits and opportunities. Even overseas students, a massive cash cow for Britain’s highly competitive university sector, are now portrayed as a national burden and are to be obliged to pay a big new immigration tax on top of their tuition fees.
Farage’s latest insurgency was made possible by the twin disasters of Liz Truss destroying the Tory brand on the economy and Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration regime—which, incredibly, allowed a surge of incomers, reaching a peak net migration figure of more than 900,000 in the year to June 2023.
The end of “free movement” in the EU thus led to far more, not far less immigration—the opposite of what the Brexiters promised. Boosted further by a surge in small boats crossing the Channel full of unauthorised asylum seekers, Farage found that immigration was his rocket fuel once he secured his vital first bridgehead as an MP in last July’s election.
This month’s Runcorn byelection, and local elections across much of non-metropolitan England, saw Farage and Reform lay waste to both Labour and the Tories. Labour’s strength in the cities and its commitment to improving public services make it less vulnerable to Reform nationwide, but Starmer has clearly decided to join Farage rather than fight him at the rhetorical level.
Much now depends on the facts on the ground. This week’s policies, together with last-minute changes to visa entitlements by Rishi Sunak’s government, should lower the headline immigration number dramatically. The biggest reductions come not from the end of the social care visa but from tight limitations on students and other incomers bringing family dependants with them.
But that still leaves Starmer with two underlying problems. First, even with these reductions, the headline net migration figure will still be in the hundreds of thousands a year. And secondly, nothing done by this or the last government has yet reduced, let alone eliminated, the small boats and surging numbers of asylum seekers outside “authorised” immigration routes. Tellingly, Farage is constantly in Dover, filming against the backdrop of small boat arrivals.
There is clearly still a huge missing piece of policy—namely, a security regime with France and the EU which stops the people smugglers and prevents small boats from setting sail across the Channel. Starmer’s “reset” with the EU needs to focus urgently on this issue, in the same way as Tony Blair eliminated the asylum surge in the noughties by means of joint action with France. If not, Farage will fight the next election from Dover and try and turn it into a referendum on the (by then) decade-long “invasion” of “illegal migrants”.
For the rest? It’s the economy, stupid. If economic growth returns, resentment at immigrants will sharply reduce irrespective of the precise number. If there is no growth, immigrants will be a scapegoat whatever their number. So Farage may be on the verge of eviscerating the Tories, but there is still everything in play before he takes over the country.
