The other 2019 election: who will succeed John Bercow?

Amid all the excitement of whether the country will have its third election in four years, another critical election will happen in parliament that seems to be attracting less notice. A new speaker will be chosen by MPs on Monday next week (if MPs choose a general election date of 12^th December).

Speaker Bercow’s influence on the Commons over his ten-year tenure has been substantial. There is no doubt that he has been a champion of backbenchers against the executive. He has dramatically increased the number of urgent questions, of which there have been over 600 in the last ten years, when his predecessor allowed just 42 between 2004 and 2009. He lengthened Prime Minister’s Questions and insisted that every backbencher who wanted to question ministers in debates and questions could do so, even if they went over the “normal time.” He also pushed through a new Education Centre on Victoria Tower Gardens, and created a crèche at 1 Parliament Street for the children of those who work on the parliamentary estate.

However, he has also been a divisive figure, notably for the way he seems to treat members of his former party with open contempt, often making fun of Conservative MPs' names such as drawing out Andrew Selous's surname when calling him. Many Conservatives also have justifiable concerns about his partiality in decision-making, pointing to his cavalier approach to interpreting Standing Orders. This culminated in him allowing an amendment by Dominic Grieve to the Business Motion for the first “meaningful vote” back in January this year, which was clearly contrary to procedural convention. Charles Walker, the widely respected Chair of the Procedure Committee, wrote to him the same month asking for an explanation of his ruling, and the speaker never bothered to reply despite the ambiguity the ruling has created. He also allowed the emergency debate procedure under Standing Order 24 to be used to debate a substantive motion, something that had never previously been done. There is still considerable disquiet amongst Commons clerks over the impact of both of these decisions.

Bercow has also been at the centre of several serious bullying allegations, with former staff members accusing him on Newsnight of “over-the-top anger.” The Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme opened last week and will probe historic allegations, but his resignation and departure from the Commons will prevent action being taken.

On Monday, MPs will have the opportunity to choose a new arbiter of the rules, through an unusual and somewhat exhaustive electoral system presided over by Ken Clarke, the Father of the House. The candidates will each address the Commons, the order determined by lot, and then a series of ballots take place amongst MPs. As soon as one candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote, a further motion will be put to the House asking for their confirmation. If no one receives 50 per cent of the vote, then the candidate with the lowest number of votes, along with any candidates with fewer than 5 per cent, will be knocked out. Voting continues in rounds until a winner emerges. Once that happens, and the House confirms the choice, they are then “dragged” to the chair by their sponsors—a symbol of the time that it was hard to fill the post as the speaker would often have to defend the Commons against the Crown.

As the election is open to every MP, the winning candidate will have to gain support across party lines, and the favourites are Lindsay Hoyle, Eleanor Laing and Harriet Harman. Hoyle has been a long-standing and extremely competent deputy speaker, well respected for his impartial chairing of debates. He has strong support across the House, and is probably the Labour MP most favoured by Conservatives. Laing has been very active on social media, focusing on “respect” for parliament and its proceedings—a clear public rebuke to some of the decisions of the current speaker. Harman is likely to be well backed by the Labour Party and the minor parties, but her challenge will be to win support from Conservative MPs.

The decision by Bercow to stand down this side of an election is an important one. The current MPs know the candidates well, which would not be the case immediately after an election, when MPs elected for the first time may be tempted to vote along party lines. Equally, if the Commons does vote for an early general election before Monday, this may remove the temptation of some MPs to vote for a speaker who may be inclined to interpret Standing Orders according to their own personal views in relation to Brexit.

The next speaker will be in place for a decade, and will have to help steer the House through a full decant as the fabric of parliament is rebuilt. They will also have to help restore parliament’s reputation, especially helping to improve respect and trust between parliament and the people.

We should get used to the speaker being seen but not heard, and given the challenges facing parliament, that’s no bad thing.