Politics

Conservative party manifesto: the verdict

Our panel responds to the Conservatives' bold election proposals

April 14, 2015
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David Cameron delivered a stirring speech at a Swindon school today to launch his party's manifesto, which he said was best summed up in one phrase: "a brighter, more secure future for you and your family."

The full document is available to read here, but below we've drawn out some key points and gathered snap responses from our expert panel. 

What are the Tories promising?

"My advice to Cameron is to pick up urgently some of the lessons from... tough times, and staple them to ideas about a more optimistic—and yes, compassionate—conservatism that he was once well placed to offer voters." So wrote the Conservative commentator and activist Tim Mongtomerie in a recent piece for Prospect, and today Cameron did just that. The Conservative manifesto, titled Strong Leadership, a Clear Economic Plan, a Brighter, More Secure Future treads a careful path between insisting that there is still "work to be done" on reducing the deficit and securing economic stability, while allowing itself to be optimistic about the future with some big offers—an extension of the "right to buy," no tax on the minimum wage by 2020, 30 hours of free childcare—for the ordinary working voters who often view the Tories with suspicion and mistrust.

Six key pledges

Here are six things that caught our eye in the manifesto:

Extension of the "right to buy" for housing association tenants. Right to buy is a legacy of the Thatcher years; it allows people living in council housing to buy their homes at a discount. Today, the Conservatives pledged to extend that right to 1.3m people living in homes owned by housing associations. The policy also requires Housing Associations to sell off their most expensive homes and use the money to build more affordable ones. In the past, though, successive governments have had a poor record of using right to buy money to fund housebuilding.

30 hours of free childcare per week Families in which both parents are working are already entitled to 15 hours of free childcare each week for their 3-4 year old children; the Tories today pledged to double this. That is more than 25 hours that Labour promised yesterday, though the Tories go into less detail, with Labour having pledged a new nonprofit "National Primary Childcare Service" to gather the necessary volunteers.

No tax on the minimum wage By 2020, the Tories will raise the personal allowance (the yearly amount on which you pay no income tax) to £12,500, which will mean that someone working for 30 hours a week on the minimum wage will pay no tax at all. Frustrated Ukippers have been complaining today that the Tories nicked this from them—they made much of a very similar policy at their Doncaster summer conference last year. Sorry chaps, that's politics.

A free vote on fox hunting The manifesto promises that parliament will have the chance to repeal Tony Blair's hunting act, which outlawed fox hunting. It seems even this modern, metro manifesto had something for the traditionalists.

Rail price freeze The Tories are promising a freeze on rail fares lasting for the next parliament—longer than Labour's proposed 1 year. Looking at the detail, though, that means fares will rise, but only in line with Retail Price Inflation.

A veto for English MPs This is a hangover from last year's referendum row. Under a Tory government, English MPs will be given a veto over matters that only affect England, to stop what many see as an unfair system by which other UK nations get to set legislation for themselves on devolved issues, and also have their Westminster MPs help set it for England.




Responses from our panel

Smart moves, but too late?

Peter Kellner, President of YouGov

The Conservatives at the moment are trying to win back votes they have lost to Ukip, not just in the seats where Ukip are challenging them but in the Conservative/Labour marginals. If you look at the people who are typically drawn to Ukip they tend to be older, poorer and more likely to feel aggrieved that the Tories are perceived as the party of the rich. Their manifesto is essentially angled at two groups; older voters who have switched to Ukip, to whom the inheritance tax policy (to make family homes worth up to £1m exempt) will appeal in some seats; and young struggling families. The Tories have lost quite a lot of support among families, young mothers in particular, and policies such as the extension of “right to buy” home ownership and the offer of 30 hours free childcare per week might help them retrieve those votes.

In terms of political tactics these are smart moves, but my reservation is that both parties have left it a bit late to try and address their underlying weaknesses. They might have been wise to put their key manifesto policies out six months ago, as it is maybe too late now for them to make a big difference.

We're missing a right to build

George Magnus, independent Economist and author

In our strange election campaign, where black is white and white is black, the Conservative Party has followed the Labour Party in proposing policies that would have seemed unthinkable a month ago. One of the planks of the Tory manifesto is an extension of the right to buy (RTB) policy to 1.3m Housing Association tenants on similar terms as council house tenants at a significant price discount. Media replays of Margaret Thatcher's original RTB announcement remind us that the policy proved to be very popular in and after the 1980s, but does it retain the same attraction?

The social housing sector, in which housing associations now account for a high proportion of housing stock, is a lot smaller than it was in Thatcher's day, making up barely 18 per cent of households compared with 32 per cent in 1981. The scope for mobilising masses of people into home ownership is therefore less.

The policy may appeal to a particular group of voters that the Conservative Party believes it could lose to Ukip and other parties—perhaps a significant enough group to make a difference at the margin, which is where the election will be won.

What the policy is not, though, is a policy to address the shortage of housing in the UK, especially for first time buyers. It's is a transfer of housing assets within the private sector but it is patently not a policy that will change the supply-demand imbalance. There may be political mileage in the right to buy policy but it is not a right to build.

The imitation game

Emran Mian, former Civil Servant and director of the Social Market Foundation

This is a surprising document, stuffed full of detail and with plenty of new pledges. But the backdrop to these commitments remains the objective of fiscal discipline: “we will go from stuck in the red, to back in the black,” quip the manifesto writers. Specifically, the manifesto mentions £13bn of cuts to departmental spending in the middle two years of the Parliament and a £12bn reduction in the welfare bill. These are by now familiar figures. However the puzzle over what these cuts might be remains.

On reading this manifesto, it’s hard not to wonder if in the end the Conservatives will adopt a similar path on deficit reduction—ie rely more on economic growth and rising tax receipts—as Labour.

NHS spending will rise by £8bn per year over the next Parliament. Education spending will go up, in line with increases in the school-age population. There’s a guarantee of a place on the National Citizen Service for every child. Lots more apprenticeships. And those other Mandelsonian economic policies cost money too.

There are the vaguest hints that there will be more cuts in the prisons budget, savings achieved through digitising services and reductions in the size of the Civil Service, but there’s no plan. Labour didn’t present much of a plan either, but then their fiscal policy is some billions looser.

The Tories did more or less do what former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling was planning to do over this Parliament. It could be that, in order to make new promises and hoping to win votes, they’ve decided to play the imitation game once again.

Where are the women?

Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser at CEBR and co-author of “Why Women Need Quotas”

There’s not a huge amount in the Conservative manifesto for women. Pledges on gender equality formed quite a large part of Labour’s, but here it is definitely more hidden. They talk about wanting to achieve full gender equality without specifying how. They pledge to increase the number of women offered public appointments and women MPs but with no mention of all-women shortlists. They will require firms of over 250 people to publish the difference between the average pay of male and female employees, but don’t say what they will do if the wage gap persists. And if there are to be bigger cuts in spending departments to meet the 2018 budget surplus pledge, these are likely to impact most negatively on women, who make up the majority of the public sector workforce.

The most significant pledge was the promise to offer working parents 30 hours of free childcare per week for 3 and 4 year olds. That is double the current allowance and five hours more than labour pledged. This is significant as the cost of childcare is often prohibitive. That is a concrete policy which will help combat the motherhood pay gap. Anything else is just words.

Nothing for the young—they don't vote Tory

Oliver Sidorczuk, Director at Bite the Ballot

This isn't a document that many young people are going to feel inspired to pick up. The Conservatives' headline youth policy is a focus on abolishing long-term youth unemployment, which includes three million new apprenticeships. Great—that's a key offer for young
people and is worth shouting about. But sadly, the manifesto is hazy on the practicalities of supporting 16 to 17 year-olds not in education, employment or training.

There's also a theme of "coming down hard" on 18 to 21 year-olds (take the youth allowance and restricted housing benefit) whilst, at the same time, gold-plating pensioners' benefits. This trend reflects the fact there isn't anything here that admits that democracy isn't working for a lot of people; especially young voters. Those that crave real democratic reform—not just fiddling round the edges—will be disappointed.

There are plans to strategise how best to tackle the infiltration of extremists in schools, as well as plans to ensure Jobcentre Plus advisers work to supplement careers advice. These are good steps on the road to properly reforming citizenship, PSHE and financial education properly in all schools. But, if that's not a go-er, let's at least lean on the Jobcentre staff to encourage the sixth-formers to register to vote when they pop in.

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