The footage was first broadcast in the early hours of 5th July 2024. On the stage, draped in his gold chain of office, the lord mayor of Leicester makes a shock announcement: an independent candidate is the new MP for Leicester South. Local optometrist Shockat Adam, then 51, had beaten Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth, the incumbent. Ashworth, who can be seen frowning slightly in the background, is a former special adviser to Gordon Brown and well-known Labour attack dog. He was expected to walk into a cabinet position after the general election.
But moments later, it is Adam who takes centre stage. He looks smart in a navy suit, his short hair parted at the side, his beard freshly trimmed. The new MP’s hands grip the lectern, the only sign he may be nervous. Emotional supporters film on their phones as Adam reaches offstage for a Keffiyeh, the symbol of support for the Palestinian cause. “This is for the people of Gaza”, he says, holding the scarf aloft. He is solemn rather than triumphant. Cheers and whoops are heard from the audience, the occasional fist is raised in the air.
This dramatic defeat of a Labour frontbencher was one of five results in last year’s election where “pro-Gaza” independents won seats from major political parties. That short clip, ubiquitous in media coverage of the vote, was shared thousands of times online. In the first few months after Adam won, some even dubbed him, derisively, the “MP for Gaza”.
But Gaza is only part of the story. That morning, Adam spoke seemingly off the cuff for nearly three minutes. He talked about the rising cost of living and the NHS crisis. He credited the community campaign that secured his victory, thanked those who stayed late counting votes and—leaning into the microphone—named the people he sought to represent, who “live in a city within a city, without a voice”. In a thinly veiled attack on Ashworth, he cautioned those who “had been in power for so long:… you cannot forget the people that you serve.”
If Adam’s victory had been fuelled by temporary anger about Labour’s policy on Gaza then, as time passed and Palestine receded from the headlines, his popularity might have had a political half-life. But, if the rest of his speech was any indication, the independent candidate’s victory stood for something more permanent: a rupture between Labour and a key part of its voting coalition.
Eight months after his win, I meet Adam in his small office at 1 Parliament Street. The room is slightly below ground level, with a view of HMRC and the Cenotaph, and it has less clutter—branded mugs, photographs, papers, calendars—than a typical political office. A smiling young staffer collects me from security, but Adam and I speak alone. Tall, well-dressed and softly spoken, Adam seems less guarded than most politicians (few MPs from major parties would conduct an interview without a member of staff present).
The MP for Leicester South tells me about writing in a journal to process the emotion of his victory. “A feeling of responsibility descended over me,” he recalls, “but it was the joy that was in the eyes and the voices of my supporters that really brought it home”. The moment was “local centric”, he says, but when he spoke about Gaza, he “knew it would be carried globally”.
The idea that he is a single-issue candidate clearly still irks him, however: “Why should I only care about one issue?”
Before entering politics, Adam ran a small chain of optical practices. Born in Malawi, his family moved to Leicester when he was a toddler. As an adult he never joined a political party but was active locally, chairing a branch of Muslim Engagement and Development, an NGO, and organising hustings and events to encourage people to take part in politics. In 2023, when he was first approached by other members of his community to stand as an independent, he was wary. He had young children, and he saw how hard it was for non-white politicians, especially Muslims, in the political spotlight. But repeatedly he heard people saying how frustrated they were with the system, that they wanted a strong local voice. Eventually he was convinced it should be him.
The swing Shockat Adam secured was large enough that, were he a member of Labour or the Tories, he would be hailed a strategic genius
As an independent, Adam lacks the party infrastructure that would normally help to allocate his office and hire staff. Getting to grips with procedures, votes and the ever-changing parliamentary timetable has been a “whirlwind”. But given the number of new MPs elected last year from all parties, many found their feet at the same time as him. He has “never felt out of place”—though he does confess to a touch of imposter syndrome.
Adam’s majority is small—979. Still, the swing he secured was large enough that, were he a member of Labour or the Tories, he would be hailed a strategic genius. As soon as he was selected as a candidate, he recalls, he and a team consisting almost entirely of volunteers—students, public sector workers and local activists—spent about four weeks creating an electoral strategy. Working in living rooms and community centres, they developed policy positions on around six key issues, including housing and the NHS, alongside campaign plans. Everything from fundraising to door-knocking was organised from scratch. The campaign was “full throttle” from February 2024 until polling day that July.
More than half a million people voted for independent candidates in last year's election, a similar share of the vote (around 2 per cent) to the SNP. The prevailing political consensus is that Adam won his seat because he mobilised a bloc protest vote; 34.8 per cent of his constituency identifies as Muslim. He is clear that Labour has let down Muslim voters, not just on Gaza—and he says he stands to the left of the party on most issues (although, in his opinion, that is a “low bar”). Adam opposes the two-child benefit cap, for instance, and cuts to winter fuel payments. In September, he and the four other left-wing independents formed a “loose alliance”, with a shared agenda on the economy, social issues and Palestine.
Adam cites Brexit as the moment of his political awakening, which surprises me. It was “not so much the political chasm in terms of the rights and wrongs of Remain and Leave,” he says, “but the language that was utilised during that campaign”. This helped him see “how polarised our nation was”.
The Green party’s electoral success says much about Labour’s loss of left-wing support, too. Carla Denyer and her co-leader, Adrian Ramsay, will not lead the Greens at the next general election. But they are, by any measure, the most successful leaders of the party in a generation. Nearly two million people voted for the Greens in 2024, yielding four MPs. By comparison, the Reform party got just over four million votes, translating to five seats. In the 1st May local elections in England, the Greens more than doubled their total of council seats, making gains from the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems.
Quadrupling a party’s parliamentary representation under first-past-the-post is no mean feat. A closer look at the Greens’ results suggests a step change in the efficiency of the party’s vote distribution. There was a swing of around 30 points in every Green target seat. In last year’s general election, Reform came second in 98 seats across the country. The Greens are now the second-largest party in 40 constituencies, up from only five in 2015 (that year Ukip came second in 120 seats).
I meet Denyer in her parliamentary office in Derby Gate. Elegant in a green pastel suit with fashionably cropped hair and gold earrings, she seems less like a politician and more like the founder of a tech start-up. The 39-year-old, who was elected last year as MP for Bristol Central, says it took a lot of “arm twisting” from colleagues to persuade her even to stand for her local council, let alone the co-leadership. Born and raised in Hampshire, she joined the Green party in her mid-twenties, but it was sixth-form campaigns against the Iraq war and for fair trade, not the climate crisis, which really got her into political activism.
When I ask if the Greens are to the left of Labour, Denyer gives an emphatic yes
Denyer, whose parents are scientists, studied to be a mechanical engineer, first moving to Bristol to work in renewables. A strong communicator with a sharp grasp of policy detail, it seems clear why she rose up the ranks of the Greens. During our interview, Denyer spends more time talking about economic inequality, rent controls and migrant rights than the climate. Recently appointed to the Renters’ Rights Bill Committee, she expertly walks me through why Scottish data cited by a government minister on the efficacy of rent controls was misleading because of the way it was gathered. “They’re comparing apples and oranges”, she says. She seems passionate, articulate and logical.
When I ask if the Greens are to the left of Labour, Denyer gives an emphatic yes. Within Westminster, however, she is keen to work cross-party to further the Greens’ agenda. Having served for nearly a decade as a local councillor in Bristol, she is frustrated by the inefficiency of parliament, which she describes as a “weird and dysfunctional workplace”. Still, she and her three Green MP colleagues—whose offices are side-by-side in what they refer to as “the Green wing”—are enthused by the “new powers and privileges we can use”.
One of the masterminds behind the Greens’ triumph is Chris Williams, the party’s head of elections and deputy CEO. He’s not an official spokesperson but agrees to discuss last year’s election results. If Williams has an equivalent, it would probably be Labour adviser and strategist Morgan McSweeney, although Williams seems much less concerned with his own profile and quicker to share the credit for his success.
Over the phone, Williams is friendly, open and satisfyingly nerdy. Unlike many political operatives he doesn’t use much jargon or try to cultivate a mystique around his work. We end our conversation with a friendly WhatsApp exchange about voting trends in the UK.
Like many other Green party members, Williams is a trained scientist (he studied biochemistry at university) who was drawn into politics through concern about the climate. He talks about being attracted to the party as a student, and then feeling intensely frustrated at its lack of electoral success. “I thought: they’re right, but they’re not getting elected.”
Williams never intended to work for the party. Now he leads a 30-strong team focused on local and national elections. He identifies an “inflection point” in 2019, from which the party’s growing electoral success begins. That was when the Greens saw a record number of wins in local elections. From that moment, you can see the “hockey stick” of rapid, arguably exponential, growth in the party’s support, he says. Talking to Williams, it’s clear there has been a massive shift in the culture and professionalism of the party machine. “We had a very long way to go, so we were pretty ruthless… hyper-focused,” he says.
There was internal disagreement about whether to focus on parliamentary elections or double down on the Greens’ success in winning council seats, Williams admits—“belief was quite low”. Now the party has realised it can win nationally, however. “We’re almost spoilt for choice.”
Williams believes that Green election wins are a collaboration between national staff and local party branches. He and his team identify “development constituencies”, putting them through their paces to see if they should get the resources to become target seats. The national party talent-spots “local teams that are up for it and… determined to win.”
The Greens’ brand is relatively strong with voters, Williams stresses. The challenge is raising awareness about the party’s non-environmental policies. Aside from traditional campaigning techniques like polling and focus groups, the party relies on grassroots organising to build awareness of its wider policy agenda. Williams won’t say the number of seats the Greens will target at the next general election, but he draws my attention to Ellie Chowns’s victory over Conservative MP Bill Wiggin in North Herefordshire. Chowns and her team secured a staggering 34 per cent swing from the Conservatives to the Greens, large enough to overturn the majority of most MPs. If they can replicate that swing elsewhere, the Greens could win any parliamentary seat in England and Wales.
I get coffee with Siân Berry, a Green party stalwart who is now the MP for Brighton Pavillion, the seat held by former leader Caroline Lucas until she stood down last year. Berry arrives in bright pink, full of energy and clutching a ream of order papers. She has been active in the party for decades, as a councillor, London Assembly member and mayoral candidate. Where Denyer is cautious and considered, Berry is bubbly and bullish. She praises Williams and the beefed-up party HQ: “We know we can win almost anywhere now”.
Last week’s local election results show that the Greens remain an underestimated political force. While the council seats up for grabs were mostly Conservative, the Green party managed to win a record number of seats. It made inroads in Leicestershire, Staffordshire and Cambridgeshire, where the party now has councillors for the first time. On the eve of the vote, I catch up with Chris Williams and he accurately predicts the Greens will set a new record. He reports that party activists feel like they are “pushing at an open door”. They are identifying a growing number of voters who are choosing between the Greens and Reform. “Voters are really tired of the traditional parties”, he tells me.
Labour’s seeming indifference to the dangers to its left is also rooted in political assumptions
Williams sees the 2026 Welsh assembly elections as the next big test for the Greens’ election unit. Nigel Farage has been clear that the Senedd is a priority for Reform and claims his party will be Labour’s main challenger. Williams is less bombastic about the Green party’s prospects there, but says he is “definitely optimistic” about what his team refer to as the “Welsh general election”.
Even with Reform’s win in the recent Runcorn byelection there are more left-wing independents in parliament than there are Reform MPs. Even taking into account the Liberal Democrats’ political fluidity, that party’s record 72 MPs is further proof of strong progressive sentiment in the UK. Recent research from More in Common is explicit that, to maintain its majority, Labour needs to appeal to its left as much as its right. Why, then, is so little attention paid to the threat from the left?
Part of the answer is psephological. Having come second in 98 constituencies last year, Reform rapidly ramped up its political operation. Now, it has gained 677 council seats, a mayor and another MP in the recent local elections. While the Green party aspires to more MPs, Reform aspires to be the party of government. And if current polling on voting intention is accurate, that goal is feasible.
Individual Green party policies may poll well with voters, but Nigel Farage’s media profile and name recognition dwarfs that of Denyer and Ramsay, as well as independents like Shockat Adam. Farage’s ability to shape Britain’s political conversation did not, for a long while, even require a seat in parliament. Beyond the UK, the rise of far-right, anti-immigration parties in countries such as Germany, France and the United States reinforces the idea that the appeal of a right-wing populist like Farage and a party like Reform is something to fear.
But Labour’s seeming indifference to the dangers to its left is also rooted in political assumptions. First, that progressive votes will be easily squeezed come the next general election. If faced with a choice between Farage and Starmer, it is assumed that left-wing voters will “hold their nose” and choose Labour. That was not the case in the recent Runcorn byelection, in which Reform won by only six votes and the Greens slightly increased their support. Second, that the massive drop in support from Muslim voters (from 80 to 60 per cent) can be dismissed as a one-off protest vote over Gaza. The party can afford, the theory goes, to take such voters for granted.
Twelve per cent of British Muslims voted Green last year, double the national average
Following this logic, the Green party surge could be temporary because it too was boosted by voters disenchanted over Palestine. Research published in Ocober, Minorities Report, found that 12 per cent of British Muslims voted Green last year, double the national average. Come the next general election, many believe this anger and energy will have dissipated.
The squeeze to Labour’s left may not be so fleeting—and the behaviour of younger voters in 2024 is one indication. While Labour remains the most popular party among 18-24-year-olds, its vote share among the young was measurably lower than in 2019. Overall, there was a larger swing away from Labour in constituencies with lots of young people. In fact, three of the “youngest” constituencies, with a high proportion of 18–24-year-olds, were those that returned Green or independent MPs: Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central and Leicester South. According to YouGov, the Greens are the second most popular party among the young, with 36 percent of 18–24-year-olds planning to vote for the party in 2029. Young people’s reasons for voting Green vary, but the party’s economic policy is consistently a factor.
If the force that propelled MPs like Denyer and Adam to parliament is part of a larger political realignment, Labour cannot bank on left-wing voters choosing it at the next election. This is the view of one of the authors of Minorities Report, Sophie Stowers, of the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe. The political analyst walks me through her research. She is hesitant to make definitive pronouncements because, she believes, “we’re entering an era of fragmentation and realignment”.
The 2024 vote was a “breakaway” election—“Gaza was a catalyst in the same way Brexit was”
Citing their findings that “ethnic minorities tend to be economically left-wing,” Stowers agrees that we are probably seeing a more permanent shift. Former Labour voters are switching to the Greens or to candidates not linked to a major party. This was evident on election night in 2024, when Labour MPs had their majorities slashed by left-leaning independents in five seats. Stowers estimates there are 40 to 50 seats where the ethnic minority vote is concentrated enough to be considered a bloc. While the shift of British Muslim voters away from Labour was more dramatic, a similar trend can be seen in the Afro-Caribbean community, which is now “more open” to other parties.
Stowers doesn’t think that “pro-Palestinian” protest votes were a one-off. Her research, one of the few large-scale studies of British ethnic minority voting, found a long-term “drift” away from Labour among British Asians, especially in the Midlands. The disaffection and disappointment with Labour runs deeper than a single issue, she says. The 2024 vote was a “breakaway” election—“Gaza was a catalyst in the same way Brexit was”.
The threat from Farage and Reform is real. According to one former Labour adviser, however, the implications of an insurgent left would be “harder to stomach” for Labour’s ruling faction. The political position Labour has chosen—fiscally and socially conservative, talking tough on immigration and welfare, and increasing defence spending by cutting international aid—was not the only one available. Indeed, an economically populist approach that included raising taxes on the wealthiest, targeting unpopular privatised industry such as water companies and increasing spending on public services would poll well with many of the voters Reform is targeting. It might even neutralise some of the appeal of the Greens and left-wing independents.
But such policy lies outside the comfort zone of the architects of the Starmer project, who are firmly on Labour’s right. Their so-called pragmatism has clear ideological limits. It also leaves Labour vulnerable to attacks from the left.
Given the unprecedented surge of independent MPs in last year’s election, the next will be “more challenging to predict”, says Stowers. The 2024 result might just pave the way for more left-wingers with a local profile to enter parliament. Siân Berry stresses that under first-past-the-post, the growing number of three- or four-horse races will throw up some strange results. What would it mean for a constituency like Barking, where the Greens and Reform beat the Conservatives to second and third place, if the left-wing independent who secured nearly 10 per cent of the vote stood aside next time? Or what about the high-profile and charismatic Faiza Shaheen, deselected as the Labour candidate weeks before the general election, who went on to win almost 26 percent of the vote as an independent. Could she beat the Conservatives and Labour next time around?
Shockat Adam believes his local ties and lack of party-political experience are a strength. “We have no predecessors,” he tells me, “we have no template.” He can focus on his constituents and his conscience because he will never have to vie for a cabinet role. Berry, meanwhile, says that the Green party’s grassroots tradition—“building from the bottom”—makes it the antidote to Reform, an outfit defined by a top-down approach and, until recently, hugely reliant on the media profile of its leader to deliver electoral success.
Labour may not be paying attention, but Farage certainly is. At a recent rally in Birmingham he cautioned supporters that “the Greens are not going away”. He characterised their voters as young people “indoctrinated at university”. Farage’s attack on MPs like Adam was more sinister, however, full of coded references to “sectarian politics” and voters in “inner-city constituencies”. Similarly, when Jonathan Ashworth lost his Leicester South seat he slammed The Muslim Vote campaign, which had supported independent candidates like Adam, for using intimidation to win seats. But dismissing the forces that elected these left-wing MPs ignores a bigger shift in British politics that is unlikely to disappear. There is a disaffection with traditional parties. This is growing on the left as well as the right.
The new left-wing MPs won their seats on their own terms, but they still define themselves in terms of the Labour party—whether it has let them down or ceded them political ground. Their challenge and opportunity is to craft a narrative that places them as a credible alternative both to a Labour government and a resurgent Reform. Labour’s response, or lack of it, to this threat will shape the future of the new left that is, quietly, emerging.
