Is there space in British politics for a new insurgent party of the left headed by Jeremy Corbyn? Probably not on his own. But possibly in alliance with the Greens and the other anti-Gaza-war independents who won seats in last year’s general election, with or without Zarah Sultana, the MP who apparently jumped the gun last week in announcing the formation of a new party she would co-lead with the former Labour leader.
It is a challenge to conceive how such an alliance could be glued together and how it would be led. But in today’s increasingly polarised, populist and embittered political firmament, there may be an appetite for it. Let me explain why.
On the face of it, there are already too many parties, more than ever before, fighting it out on mainland Britain (Northern Ireland is a separate political universe). Five are competing in England—Labour, Lib Dem, Green, Tory, Reform—plus nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales and the loosely aligned independents in parts of England’s cities with large Muslim communities.
Yet unprecedentedly, all of these eight parties or groupings managed to win seats in the July 2024 election, despite Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system which makes it very hard for small parties to break through. And all of them (apart from the independents who don’t feature in national polls) are now polling at five per cent or more in at least one of mainland Britain’s three nations.
The reason that this situation is unprecedented is that today’s multi-party system isn’t as “multi” as it seems from national polls. Essentially, across most British constituencies last July, two parties were competing for first place; it is just that the two parties varied across the country.
Across most of provincial England, either Labour or the Lib Dems—dependent mostly on their inherited position in each constituency—were in a straight fight with the Tories. In Scotland, the SNP was generally in a two-party contest with Labour in the cities, and with the Tories or Lib Dems in many provincial or rural areas. In Wales, there was a complex mosaic of mostly two-party contests, including Plaid Cymru in more Welsh-speaking constituencies. In parts of England’s traditionally Labour cities, a two party “left” contest developed with the Greens or the independents.
In parts of poorer provincial eastern England, Reform complicated the picture. At the last election, Reform was in competition with both Labour and the Tories in a few eastern (mostly coastal) constituencies and succeeded in winning five, including Farage himself in Clacton. But, as of last July, Reform was not in serious competition elsewhere.
In recent months, Reform’s rise has been dramatic, in the polls, in byelections, and in local elections. By the next general election, this could develop into far more multi-party contests at constituency level, as Reform and the Tories fight it out on the right for the remaining 120 Tory-held seats, and both wrestling to be the main alternative to Labour or the Lib Dems in non-Tory provincial seats.
It is possible that one of the right-wing parties (most likely Reform, as of the present position) might succeed in marginalising the other by the time of the next general election, so that most constituencies continue to feature an essentially two-party contest for first place. Or maybe the Tory party, probably under a new leader, can retrieve its previously dominant position.
Whatever happens on the right, this still leaves large swathes of metropolitan England where Labour did not have any serious rival for first place last July, but where the government is now becoming seriously unpopular, as elsewhere. In these areas, Reform will struggle to become the main anti-Labour party because of its poor ratings among three demographics in particular: graduates, the young, and ethnic minority voters. And the Tories and Lib Dems are nowhere in most of the inner-city parts of these metropolitan areas (unlike many suburbs, where they have remained in contention).
In these swathes of metropolitan Labour-land, a Green/Corbyn/independent alliance, pitching to the left of an unpopular Starmer, could conceivably make itself the main competitor to Labour, if it had powerful leadership and organisation. This is where Corbyn could score, particularly if the Green party elects the left-wing “eco-populist” Zack Polanski as its new leader and the two forge a viable alliance, possibly together with the independents.
A formidable set of obstacles would need to be overcome to make such a grouping viable, not least the question of leadership. Corbyn and Polanski would need to find a way of coexisting; they would need to find a way of allocating seats between their coalition of parties, and they would need to forge a programme which satisfies this coalition and doesn’t disintegrate under scrutiny. These would all be huge challenges.
However, the thing that makes all this seem possible rather than quixotic is that, despite the existing five party system in England, there is nothing to the left of Labour apart from Corbyn and the Greens. This is a very large political space, which is becoming still larger as Labour suffers in government. In Scotland and Wales, nationalists are generally in this leftist space but, in England, it is largely unoccupied.
So Corbyn and Polanski may become a curious duo worth watching in the months ahead.
