Politics

The DUP response to Johnson's deal proves Leavers didn't know what they were voting for

If Leave means Leave, why are these Leavers against it?

October 24, 2019
The DUP have opposed any Brexit deal that would result in a border in the Irish Sea. Photo: PA
The DUP have opposed any Brexit deal that would result in a border in the Irish Sea. Photo: PA

"We knew what we were voting for."

Did you, now? Apparently 17.4 million people all knew what they were voting for when they voted Leave.

With Boris Johnson reaching a new deal to take Britain out of the EU, we are told that *this* is what the 52 percent were voting for. (Nobody has asked the 52 percent, of course.) The headbangers of the European Research Group have fallen in line, the Pravda propagandists at the Telegraph obediently perform jubilation, and the Tory frontbench is finally united.

Enter the DUP like a fart at a party. While the Tories get drunk on their own hubris, Northern Ireland's hardline unionists are kicking up an almighty stink at how the deal has left them for dead.

“The Prime Minister has lost my respect," thundered DUP MP Sammy Wilson this week. “It creates a border in the Irish Sea and [we] will not support it."

It has often been argued by Remainers that while there was a public majority for Brexit, there was never a majority for a specific form of Brexit. Most Leave voters wanted to end free movement of people, but not all. Some wanted to leave the customs union, but not all. Many wanted a No Deal Brexit, but not all.

This argument has always been rejected by the “Get On With It” brigade. But if Johnson's Brexit deal was put to a public referendum against Remain, it would almost certainly be crushed in both Scotland and Northern Ireland—two of the UK's four constituent nations.

In fact, this Brexit deal would be imposed on Northern Ireland against the express wishes of almost all its elected representatives in Stormont and Westminster.

English Leave voters broadly back Johnson's deal. Northern Irish Leave voters do not. Anyone trying to claim the 52 percent “knew what they were voting for” has to explain how these two groups knew what they were voting for when they clearly voted for very different things.

Across the UK in general, more 2016 Remain voters appear to back the deal than Leave voters oppose it. But depending on the poll, 25-40 percent of people don't know what they think, and around ten percent of 2016 Leave voters outright oppose the deal. If Leave means Leave, why are these Leavers against it?

This is also while Johnson maintains his doublespeak strategy: the threat of No Deal both maintained and extinguished, workers' rights both guaranteed and vulnerable, environmental protections both addressed and ignored. Just as the government is terrified of allowing extended scrutiny for fear of collapsing the fragile coalition of MPs backing the deal, so public backing could similarly fall away once the details become clear.

The refusal to provide an economic impact assessment is deliberate. The weaponisation of public exhaustion with Brexit, and the government's fixation on October 31st as the “do or die” Brexit date, are also deliberate. All of this is about bouncing through a bad deal before people realise how bad it is.

While there has been relatively little changing of minds since 2016, there has been a key shift—those who didn't vote in the referendum, either through age or apathy, are now decidedly against Brexit. Hence far more polls now show a majority to Remain than Leave. To ignore this is little better than to run roughshod over the opposition of the people of Northern Ireland.

The DUP revolt against Johnson's deal explodes the myth of the 52 percent. This deal—or, indeed, any particular Brexit—cannot be assumed to have a popular mandate from 2016. It needs a fresh mandate now.