Earlier this month, it was confirmed that the United Kingdom and Italy’s joint bid to host the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was successful. Known as the UNFCCC COP26, the meeting that will be held in November and bring together 30,000 delegates to discuss future international frameworks, commitments, and strategies to reduce global greenhouse emissions.
There is a lot of optimism around COP26 because it is being branded as the ground on which to build upon the work achieved at the 2015 Paris summit where ambitious national emission reduction commitments were made by many countries.
In the intervening years, however, the ‘Paris Agreement’ failed to fully cement those commitments for two reasons: First, the commitments were voluntary and non-binding. Second, there was little agreement on how they should be achieved.
With the IPCC warning that we are due to exceed the ‘safe’ level of warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by 2030, the need to not only reduce emissions but also adapt to the realities of a changing climate is becoming urgently more important.
COP26 is an opportunity for the UK to take a lead and build on past achievements, especially given that with current policies climate change is on track for 3 degrees Celsius (oC) of warming—above the 2oC warming ceiling agreed at Paris.
So how might this be achieved?
Three core areas
To capitalise on the opportunity of hosting this high-level climate summit, the UK needs to focus on and promote three core areas in the runup to and at COP26: diplomacy, climate adaptation and resilience, and market-based emission abatement policies.First, before the summit opens its doors, the UK needs to focus on establishing effective dialogue and diplomacy between parties. The main sticking points of international climate diplomacy are well known. There are tensions between so-called ‘Global North’ and ‘Global South’ countries over financial and technological flows in aid of decarbonisation, and debates over how best to support those most vulnerable to climate risks, such as island nations.
The participation of China, India and—most importantly—the US, in any future multilateral agreements must also be handled carefully.
With significant political uncertainty at home in the UK—including over whom will be in government come next November—many are questioning whether the UK is stable enough to act as a diplomatic facilitator ahead of the summit, as France expertly did ahead of the Paris Agreement. The UK needs to prove the sceptics wrong.
Resilient societies
Second, a major area of policy development at COP26 should be a focus on climate adaption and resilience, which refers to the ability of societies to adapt to and recover from the negative effects of a changing climate, as opposed to solely focusing on reducing GHG emissions.Climate adaption and resilience is especially key because climate change does not affect everyone equally. Some countries, notably island nations and many of the poorest countries in the world, are exposed more greatly to the risks associated with the effects of climate change, and face greater fiscal and infrastructural constraints to mitigate against them.
The 2015 Paris Agreement included provisions related this, such as a target by developed countries to mobilise $100 billion by 2020 for both climate adaption and mitigation and to maintain this expenditure thereafter.
Similarly, the agreement further underscored the need to balance mitigation and adaption in climate finance spending, and to focus any adaption efforts on the most vulnerable to climate change.
Working with the markets
Third, the UK should push for the continued development of market-based policies to tackle climate change.Existing levers, such as well-designed carbon taxes and cap-and-trade schemes, attach an explicit cost to carbon, reflecting the need to reduce GHGs and the risk associated with their continued emittance through the price of goods and services.
By doing so, such policies incentivise businesses to act to reduce emissions at the lowest cost. Furthermore, if policy provides room for flexibility, businesses are incentivised to innovate.
Sweden, for instance, is a success story in terms of a functioning carbon tax, with the highest carbon price in the world at $139 per tonne of CO2. Critics of carbon taxes often suggest they stifle business and growth—but Sweden’s economy has grown 60 per cent since the introduction of its carbon tax in 1991.
Admittedly, market-based instruments need to be sensibly designed to not negate the disproportionate costs of climate change on different groups. Policy needs to factor this in, and creative proposals have included a carbon dividend to the population and ring-fencing money for energy efficiency schemes.
What appears fundamental to the success of market-based instruments to reduce emissions is how government actually spend the revenue they generate. If revenue is reinvested in other, complementary policies—especially supporting those on low incomes—and there is a consistent political and public dialogue, market-based instruments work.
The road to net zero
The UK has a leading role to play in COP26 next year. Given the political turbulence at home, perhaps international climate diplomacy is where UK politicians can find rare common ground.There is clearly political appetite for strong action on climate change, given the overwhelming majority support amongst the public—and parliamentarians—for reducing our emissions to net zero in the coming decades. Now, the focus is on how we achieve a net-zero economy, both domestically and internationally.
