The incoming British ambassador Nigel Sheinwald is preceded by his reputation as a bruiser. Everybody on the diplomatic circuit has heard that he snapped, "Are you in favour of suicide bombers?" at one middle east expert in a Downing Street meeting. After a term in Brussels as our man at the EU and, most recently, a stint as Blair's foreign policy adviser, many foreign ministries have first-hand knowledge of Nigel's ways. The Russians have been talking up his hasty departure from Moscow after a car accident in which a Russian died, and the Spanish complain that he was thuggish to them over Gibraltar. The Germans nod when his name comes up, and note it is quite something to be called arrogant by the French.
Sheinwald may not have the inside track to Gordon Brown, as the two men had a memorable row when Sheinwald was in favour of joining the euro. Still, one person has a soft spot for him—Condi Rice. Rice likes to make small talk in Russian just to show she can, and Nigel is happy to oblige. She also thinks that he played a crucial role in one of her few triumphs: getting Libya to give up its nuclear weapons programme and reopen its oil fields. One of the oil companies to benefit was Chevron, which is close to Condi's heart as it made her a director of the company and named a 130,000-ton tanker after her. Sadly, when she joined the Bush administration, the good ship Condoleezza Rice had to become the Altair Voyager. If Nigel is very good, he may get to see the photos of the ship that Condi keeps in her Watergate apartment.
The Dems fear being stuck with Iraq
There's an uncomfortable theory circulating among Democrats that the departing Karl Rove has left a curse behind that will land them with the blame for Iraq. Think of it as the curse of Ford and Carter. The Democrats have painfully learned over the past six months that despite their nominal majorities in both houses, they cannot assemble the 60 Senate votes needed to override a presidential veto and impose a deadline for troop withdrawals. So the Iraq mess will be left steaming on the desk of the next president, most probably a Democrat. The odium of admitting defeat and withdrawing, probably under fire and taking heavy casualties, will fall on the Democrats. They call that the Ford legacy, after the way Richard Nixon left office in time for the humiliating fall of Saigon to take place on his successor's watch. But it gets worse, because the Democrats will also be stuck with the blame for the resulting Iraqi chaos and rising oil prices, just like Jimmy Carter. So after four years of a hapless Democratic presidency, the Republicans come back in 2012 and rule for a generation.
The Republicans fear a wipeout
But if the Democrats are worried, the Republicans are in worse shape. Jennifer Duffy, resident expert on Senate races for the Cook Report, the most respected of political tip sheets, has just sent waves of panic through the Republicans. She has suggested that the Dems could win nine races next year and get a veto-proof majority of 60 seats. Because next year's Senate races are for those seats elected in the pro-Republican year of 2002, Republicans are defending 22 seats and Democrats only 12. A number of Republican retirements and a few scandals also help the Democrats, who look likely to take Chuck Hagel's seat in Nebraska and John Warner's in Virginia. Larry Craig in Idaho has his men's room problem, and Louisiana's David Vitter has admitted patronising the so-called "DC Madam." Up in Alaska, Ted Stevens is facing some ugly ethics questions. There's an open seat in Colorado, and in New Hampshire the ineffective John Sununu has collapsed in the polls. Senators Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minnesota) and Gordon Smith (Oregon) would all get re-elected in a normal year, but the polls predict them being slaughtered over Iraq. The twist is that even if the Democrats win all available seats, their ability to override a presidential veto will then depend on the ex-Democrat, pro-war senator Joe Lieberman, who sits as an independent after being defeated in his state's Democratic primary.
Romney likes Ike
There's something creepy about Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, Mormon and science fiction fan, and it's not just his passion for the novel Battlefield Earth by L Ron Hubbard, founder of the Scientology cult. Romney has set up his own version of the White House secret service, with little earpieces and wrist radios. Ever since he heard that Bush's staff refer to him as "43" (he's the 43rd president) Romney's security have to call him "70," as he was the 70th governor of Massachusetts. His head of operations, Jay Garrity, ran into trouble when Boston cops found unauthorised police equipment in his car, including flashing sirens, radios and a state police sign saying "official business." But the really freaky thing is that Romney, who counts Eisenhower as one of his favourite presidents, has insisted his grandchildren address him and his wife by Eisenhower-style nicknames. "I'm Ike, and Ann is Mamie," he told the Atlantic in a September 2005 interview.
