Following the French Socialist party's decision to back the European constitution, it now looks much more likely that France as a whole will vote "yes," probably in the spring. And that in turn would mean that the likely British rejection of the treaty in 2006 would leave Britain isolated, and perhaps on its way out of the EU altogether. Of course, we may yet have a bit of company in the rejectionist camp - the Poles, perhaps, or the Czechs or Danes. But in each of these countries the odds seem to favour a "yes" vote. In any case, none of them is big enough to stop the constitution. A better chance of salvation may lie with the Dutch - as founder members of the union, their rejection of the constitution would really count. And although the Dutch political and media establishment will rally round the treaty, the country has been in a febrile mood since the murder of Theo van Gogh. The "no" camp is likely to be led by Geert Wilders, a renegade liberal politician with peroxided hair, who is making a strong bid to be the political successor to Pim Fortuyn. Opinion polls show that Wilders's new political party is doing well, and the man himself can count on something of a sympathy vote, since he has been threatened with murder by Islamic fanatics, and has to have 24-hour armed protection and live in safe houses. Wilders plans to make immigration and prospective Turkish membership of the EU the centrepieces of his campaign. His opponents will argue that these issues are of no relevance to a vote on the constitution, but it should not be too difficult to make a link. However, it is still hard to believe that the traditionally pro-European Dutch are going to be the ones to plunge the dagger into the document. Blair's only real hope is a turnaround in opinion in Britain. The "yes" camp thinks that its best hope of winning is to persuade people that the campaign is really about British membership of the EU. And increasingly, this seems to be the ground on which the "no" camp is willing to fight - witness a recent pamphlet ("Voting on the Constitution," Politeia) by Daniel Hannan, the Tory MEP and former Telegraph leader-writer, praising the virtues of non EU-members like Norway and Switzerland.
The Norwegian way
To understand better the attractions of the Norwegian way, your correspondent recently visited Oslo. But it was difficult to draw any conclusions, because Norway - as the third largest oil exporter in the world - is a kind of Kuwait on the North sea. Being flinty puritans, the Norwegians do nothing as self-indulgent as spend their oil money. Instead, it all piles up in a government savings account, worth $150bn, and Oslo, which should have all the glitz of a Gulf state, looks surprisingly dowdy. This huge wealth means that the country has been able to strike an almost comically disadvantageous deal with the EU, without feeling the pain. In return for untrammelled access to the single market, it has to accept all internal market legislation - including all those nasty directives on working time and temporary workers that drive the Tories crazy - and their contribution to the European budget is as big as Denmark's. But no EU money is spent in Norway, and the country does not get to vote on EU laws. Oddly, the Norwegians top the EU's league table for the speed with which internal market legislation is adopted. Jon Bingen, a Norwegian academic, muses that his country's foreign ministry takes a special pleasure in implementing all internal market legislation with particular speed and ferocity, as a way of punishing the Norwegian people for having twice voted to reject EU membership. Still, all those years that Norwegian diplomats spent negotiating treaties that never came into force have not gone totally to waste. The foreign ministry runs training courses for countries that are applying for EU membership - as the only country to have gone through the whole process twice, it can fairly lay claim to a unique level of expertise.
Forever England
In an effort to shake off the gloom inspired by the prospect of a train wreck in Britain's relations with the EU, your correspondent headed off recently to watch a crucial football match in the Belgian second division - and discovered a piece of Brussels that seems to be forever England. Stepping into the Royale Union Saint-Gilloise ground is to rediscover British football as it was in the 1970s. The tannoy booms out "You'll Never Walk Alone"; health-threatening hot dogs in stale buns, slathered in onions and tomato sauce, are the only available food; if you want a drink, you go to the club bar, the George and Dragon; the supporters still stand on terraces, while the pitch is fenced-off in pre-Hillsborough style. Although RUSG are based in a French-speaking area and were playing a team from Dutch-speaking Antwerp, both sets of supporters chose to abuse each other in English. The only contemporary touch was provided by the players, who, in the modern fashion, were from all over the world - Antwerp's winning goal was scored by a Chinese centre-forward, on loan from Manchester United. The trip was a reminder that whatever happens in Britain's relationship with the EU, there are wider cultural forces at play beyond high politics - globalisation, the spread of the English language and the stubborn effectiveness of the long-ball game in lower-division football.
