Wimbledon: are we still on for a Federer-Murray final?

I am writing this late on Saturday, after Andy Murray’s third-round match against Viktor Troiki of Serbia. (It was almost embarrassingly easy for Murray.) The first week of the tournament is over. Are things heading inexorably towards the Federer-Murray final that seems to be the predetermined climax of Wimbledon ‘09? My answer would be probably. But I am not as confident as many commentators seem to be.

First of all, I am not completely convinced by Murray so far. In the second round against Ernests Gulbis, and now again against Troiki, he has dispatched mediocre opponents with enormous, almost frightening efficiency. (He played much less authoritatively in his first match, against Robert Kendrick.) But he hasn’t played anyone especially good, and I wonder if it will be the same story when he comes up against someone who can really throw some shots at him. Murray’s essentially defensive, aggression-absorbing game works brilliantly against opponents who don’t have the weapons to get the ball past him; he simply rallies with them, teasingly, until they start to crack. But will it work against a Djokovic, a Verdasco or even a Hewitt on top form? Murray didn’t face any especially tough opponents at Queen’s either, which again makes his serene progress through that tournament look more significant than it is. I just have a feeling that Murray could be surprised, and be found wanting, if he suddenly comes up against a top player, or a not quite top player playing out of his skin. In those situations the shortcomings of his game—his tendency to be too passive, and to suddenly drift off—could become apparent, and I wonder if he’ll have the skill and mental strength to adapt.

Having said that, Murray is lucky to be in the Nadal-vacated side of the draw, which looks by a huge margin to be the weaker side. I don’t see Andy Roddick posing a problem for Murray. Hewitt could do, especially if he manages to draw Murray into a five-setter. But there’s no one else there who looks especially scary.

The other side of the draw, by contrast, is pretty scary—and that’s my second reason for having some doubts about a Federer-Murray final coming to pass. Federer, if he is to get to the final, will have to make it through what could be some extremely difficult matches. He has Robin Soderling in the next round—and although he beat him easily enough in the final of the French Open, Soderling is an immensely dangerous player who is playing the tennis of his life and, this time, has little to lose. Federer then has the prospect of a quarter-final against either the six foot ten ace machine Ivo Karlovic or the Spanish left hander Fernando Verdasco; and then, most probably, a semifinal against Novak Djokovic. All those matches could be extremely tough.

Assuming Federer does make it through (and his form so far has been ominously good: more on this in my next post), the difficulty of the matches he’ll have played could cut both ways. Beating the likes of Verdasco and Djokovic may force him to raise his game to its highest level, and he may be in such a groove, and playing with such confidence, by the time he comes up against Murray that he simply blows the Scot away, much as he did in the final of last year’s US Open. On the other hand, if Federer has to make it through some tough, five-set matches on the way to the final that could sap both his confidence and strength, and give Murray the upper hand.

Either way, a Federer-Murray final would be some prospect; I very much hope it’s what we’ll see.