In the long and sorry saga of Brexit, the DUP’s mantra that Northern Ireland cannot and must not be treated any differently from the rest of the UK has become one of the best known and most powerful political motifs at Westminster. Indeed, it was the Achilles heel which scuppered Theresa May’s attempts at securing an EU withdrawal deal, as Conservative hardliners echoed the DUP’s concerns about having any difference in trade or tariffs for Northern Ireland.
In Northern Ireland, the philosophy was less well received. Many living here, especially women and the LGBT community, found the idea little more than derisory, as the DUP have always been perfectly content to see Northern Ireland treated differently when it comes to treatment of same-sex couples who wish to marry or women and girls seeking a termination.
Therein lies the central paradox of the DUP’s unionism. The party has always wanted to be just like the rest of the UK, but without the accompanying rights afforded to UK citizens. It is a circle the party has never quite been able to square. However, as many in the rest of the UK had never heard of the party prior to the 2017 general election, it was an issue they were seldom challenged on.
Throughout the Brexit process, however, their position has become harder and harder to sustain.
This week, Westminster finally voted to legalise equal marriage for same-sex couples as well as introducing human rights-compliant abortion legislation for Northern Ireland through amendments attached to the Northern Ireland Executive Formation Bill by Labour MPs Stella Creasy and Conor McGinn.
The move comes on the back of decades of activists’ work—but appears to have been fuelled by a growing awareness among English MPs of the paradox of Northern Ireland’s “Britishness.” This was coupled with the fact that Northern Ireland has been without a government for over two and half years, following the January 2017 collapse of the DUP-Sinn Féin power-sharing government. The argument that issues like abortion and marriage equality are devolved failed to hold credibility when the devolved parliament sits gathering dust atop Stormont Hill.
However, the reforms are not secured yet. It is important to note the crucial caveat attached to them: they will only be implemented if there is still no government at Stormont on 21st October.
Presently, there is another round of talks taking place between the DUP and Sinn Féin with a view to securing an agreement between them to go back into government this Autumn. So far, they have appeared to fizzle out like the many other rounds which have taken place since January 2017. The parties continue to stand at logger-heads over the issue of whether to introduce an Irish Language Act, with Sinn Féin insisting they will not return to government without such legislation while the DUP insist they will not return with it.
It is possible that the threat of marriage equality and abortion access could finally give the DUP enough leverage with their supporters to perform a u-turn. The party’s supporters are fiercely opposed to the Act, which they believe undermines Northern Ireland’s Britishness. However, if there were any circumstances in which the DUP could persuade their members, it would be by arguing that conceding on the issue is the only means of stopping abortion law reform. They could frame any such concession as an unfortunate but necessary evil in order to stay true to their evangelical Christian values.
In this way, this week’s events could actually be a welcome tool for the DUP. They could yet manage to block the reforms by returning to Stormont before the 21st October deadline. In the coming days and weeks, we should expect much manoeuvring within the party’s ranks as they decide whether to do so or not.
However, it is also worth noting that if any such concession on the Irish Language Act is to come from the DUP, pressure will in turn fall on Sinn Féin to hold out until after 21st October and refuse to sign off on a deal in order to ensure the abortion and marriage equality reforms still pass. This would put Sinn Féin in a difficult position: they have long talked up the Irish Language Act as their main non-negotiable condition in talks and cited it as their justification for leaving Stormont empty in near daily media appearances.
They may also come under criticism from their hardline grassroots due to the awkward paradox inherent in their own position: although the party support marriage equality and abortion access, as Irish Republicans they are opposed to British intervention in internal Northern Ireland issues and so cannot be seen to celebrate yesterday’s amendments too much.
While a major breakthrough in a long and painful struggle for progress for Northern Ireland, then, these amendments are by no means secured with certainty. The three-month period between now and 21st October has scope for other unexpected developments. The Stormont talks which previously seemed to be on the edge of fizzling out once more now hold the power to make or break this progress.
