It has not been widely noticed but the Czech Republic takes over the EU presidency in January just at the time that Barack Obama is inaugurated in Washington. Vaclav Klaus, the Czech Republic president, is both a Euro and a climate change sceptic. So we can look forward to an intriguing role reversal, at least on the environment, as the man representing the supposedly progressive Europeans meets the leader of the supposedly reactionary Americans. Barack Obama has already pledged to invest $15bn a year in renewable energy, create 5m "green jobs" in the US and set a firm target for reducing emissions. Will the EU be able to keep up?
Yet the environment might be the exception. Now that liberal Europeans have got what they wanted with Obama's election, some are starting to wonder if much is really going to change. One view is that, although George W Bush's first term marked the high point of the neocons, Bush's second term was rather different. In recent years European co-operation with Washington has improved and therefore the room for positive change is less than you might think. And, from what is known of Obama's politics, there may be both opportunities and problems.
On trade policy, Obama may be less committed to reaching a global deal than the outgoing administration. He is pretty certain to put countries such as Germany on the spot by asking for more troops for Afghanistan—or at least an end to the caveats that prevent troops operating on more dangerous missions.
The sensible conclusion is that he will make a difference but his agenda will be more closely aligned to US interests than Europeans hope. The European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, was said to favour Obama because he saw more opportunities for co-operation. But the two men have never actually met.
Obama will be making two trips to Europe in the first half of 2009. But we shouldn't feel too flattered—he has two appointments that no president could miss. The first is Nato's 60th anniversary summit in April, followed by the G8 summit in Italy in July. Which other European capitals will he visit?
The brown Sarko love-in
One of the side effects of the global economic crisis is that it has reshaped the uneasy triangle which dominates the EU. France and Germany have traditionally been the motors of European integration, enjoying a special place at the heart of the EU. Britain has usually looked on jealously and exploited any opportunity to drive a wedge between the two.
Until recently, it was assumed that Gordon Brown's best ally was likely to be Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. A scientist by training, she shares with Brown a love of complex policy briefs. But, rejuvenated by the financial crisis, Brown has proved useful to the French president Nicolas Sarkozy by coming up with workable proposals to save the banks. Sarko, who holds the EU's rotating presidency, has proved useful to Brown by giving him an important place in European policy-making and an international profile, even inviting him to a eurozone summit. Merkel, by contrast, has been written out of the script.
At November's summit Sarko paid gushing tribute to Brown's "creativity and all his contributions" while noting simply that the French and German leaders were in full agreement. Articles in the French press, remarking on the strength of the Sarkozy-Brown partnership, have reinforced tensions with Merkel.
But the Brown-Sarko relationship is not a complete surprise. They knew each other when both served as their country's finance minister and, although different in temperament, got on well enough. At one of their first meetings as leaders, during the Rugby World Cup final in Paris in October 2007, a rapport was established when the two men chatted amiably in the half-time interval. The topic of conversation during this moment of sporting excitement? Reform of global financial institutions, of course.
Polish political comedy
At emergency summits during these dark times you have to find entertainment where you can—and Poland has come to the rescue. The feud between the nationalist and Eurosceptic President Lech Kaczynski and his centre-right prime minister Donald Tusk reached a peak in October when a row exploded over who should attend the EU summit. Uninvited, Kaczynski turned up anyway provoking a lively diplomatic incident and exposing the country to ridicule.
To avoid a repeat, Tusk bowed out of the November Brussels summit. Kaczynski used the meeting to heighten his anti-Russian rhetoric in defiance of the more conciliatory line set out by Tusk and his foreign minister, Radek Sikorski. (Sikorski resigned from the previous Polish government led by Kaczynski's twin brother, Jaroslaw, and is consequently a sworn foe of the president.) So when Lech Kaczynski held an eve-of-summit meeting with the Lithuanian president to plot anti-Russian strategy, he opted to hold it in Lithuania's Brussels embassy. Poland's embassy is under the control of the country's foreign ministry and is therefore enemy territory.
