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This new polling holds indispensable lessons for the Republicans—and political parties the world over

Moderate Trump supporters are now rejecting him. And parties ignore swing voters at their peril

By Peter Kellner  

Photo: REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

In the short term, the result of Donald Trump’s impeachment is not in doubt. The Senate will fail to amass the 67 votes needed to convict him. The longer term is another matter, for leading Republicans will still face an essential dilemma: should they keep the former President as their de facto leader, or dump him?

Fresh data throws new light on that dilemma. It also illustrates a truth about politics the world over: voters’ attitudes are invariably more varied than the simple facts conveyed by piles of ballot papers. Elections decide; but they also deceive.

During…

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