Brussels diary

Manneken Pis may have correctly predicted (see Brussels diary, December) that Herman van Rompuy, the harmless, haiku-loving, Belgian premier, would become the first permanent president of the European Council. But our crystal ball didn’t foresee the appointment going alongside—that of Catherine Ashton as the EU’s foreign policy supremo. Ashton has no foreign policy experience and her appointment horrified many people. But, a few weeks on, her installation is being seen in a slightly more positive light. Part of the reason is that she performed adequately in her first appearance before a European parliament committee. Admittedly she ducked just about every foreign policy question. But she managed to wrongfoot Tory critics by telling them that she had received a congratulatory voicemail from none other than David Cameron.

However, the main reason for the willingness to give Ashton a chance is the legacy of her predecessor Javier Solana. Despite his decade in office, Eurocrats have to think long and hard to come up with concrete achievements to attribute to the Spanish ex-secretary general of Nato. True, Solana played an important mediating role several years ago in the Balkans. And he won himself a place on the foreign policy circuit, where his tactile brand of diplomacy put him on backslapping terms with foreign ministers around the globe. But to what purpose? Television viewers in Britain will rarely have seen him because the BBC long ago concluded that his English was not up to broadcast quality. The same decision was reached by French broadcasters and even in his native Spanish, Solana often rambled.

Meanwhile, objectives that might have made the EU more credible—like its initiative to create a 60,000-strong military force—were abandoned when the going got tough. Solana invested most of his energy in the middle east, where Europe still has little influence. He became Tehran’s interlocutor on the nuclear issue, for instance—but such a dialogue will only make strides if and when the US decides to engage.

By contrast, Ashton’s one soundbite, “Am I an ego on legs? No, I’m not” may prove to be her strength. Her appointment dispels the impression that the EU is a global foreign-policy player—but that is a reality check. A compromise-broker among the 27 foreign ministers may be no bad thing. If Ashton can focus on areas where the EU has influence and get national governments to agree on a line and stick to it, she may leave a bigger legacy than her predecessor.

A man of inaction

Van Rompuy’s rise to greatness gives heart to anyone who has never been afflicted by hyperactivity. During less than a year as prime minister of Belgium, Van Rompuy succeeded in calming the country’s bitter ethnic division to such an extent that his departure has prompted alarm there. But rather than tackling head on the most intractable political rift between the Flemish and Walloon communities, Van Rompuy hit on another tactic: do nothing.

At the European level his strategy was alarmingly similar and equally effective. While all three prime ministers of the Benelux countries wanted the EU’s top job, Van Rompuy’s months of studied inaction as prime minister gave him a crucial advantage over his rivals because he has not made a single enemy. By contrast, Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker has had poor relations with successive British prime ministers and also managed to fall out with the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy. Holland’s Jan Peter Balkenende developed a reputation for Dutch plain-speaking and a streak of stubbornness. Being the man with the fewest foes, Van Rompuy came through the middle to clinch the job. But, now he’s got the position, is his strategy about to change? Advisers are telling Van Rompuy that he will need to prove to the 27 prime ministers that he is no pushover by actually doing something. We are entering unchartered territory.

The tears of Juncker

It is hard to feel too much sympathy for Tony Blair’s failed attempt to become EU president. He can, after all, carry on making large sums of money at the helm of Tony Blair Associates. But what of the other man who long wanted the post? As Manneken Pis explained in last month’s column, Jean-Claude Juncker became the suicide bomber of the saga by declaring his interest in the job in public. Such exposure lessened his chances but, Juncker calculated, it would make clear the opposition to Blair and wreck Tony’s prospects.

To the surprise of some observers, Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, pushed Juncker until late on in the process. But she failed to bring Sarko on board and the Luxembourger duly went down in flames. When the choice of president was finally taken, a blubbing Juncker congratulated Van Rompuy at an emotional meeting.

At present, the Luxembourg premier, who doubles as his country’s finance minister, holds the chairmanship of the eurozone finance ministers. It’s a post for which he is desperate to win a third term or, to be more precise, a first one under the Lisbon treaty. But now even that is in doubt and some are predicting more tears from Juncker in the new year.