Well, it wasn't as bad as Madrid, where José María Aznar's pro-Bush and pro-war party was booted from power. But everyone in Washington now knows that Blair's electoral battering means that the days are distinctly numbered for Bush's closest ally. This is worse than just losing Tony, it is also losing that traditional and instinctive pro-Americanism of the wider British public. Former national security adviser Zbig Brzezinski is credited with this penetrating observation: "the Brits seem to be turning into Europeans," along with its implication that this could be one of the biggest strategic disasters of the Bush era. The ever-reliable British ally might not always be there for Bush or other presidents in future confrontations like the widely expected showdown with Iran. Condi Rice has been circulating some ominous cables about this, which have got the Pentagon and national security council worried. And now even Bush has noticed that this summer's session will probably be his last G8 summit with Blair of Basra, the only other G8 leader he actually enjoys seeing.
Who knows Gordon?
In Washington, Blair is now assumed to be a lame duck, so the new question is: who knows the man of the future? (Gordon Brown, in case you were wondering.) Among Republicans, the only two familiars have an even shorter political life expectancy than Blair—Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who steps down early next year, and the undistinguished treasury secretary John Snow. By contrast, lots of Democrats are preening, starting with former treasury secretaries Larry Summers and Bob Rubin. The Anglophile who really thinks he has hit the jackpot is campaign strategist Bob Shrum, who should be known as the man with the kiss of death after his latest failure with John Kerry. Before Kerry came Al Gore, Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale. The guy has backed a string of losers, all the way back to Ed Muskie in 1972. But Brown has been a frequent caller at Shrum's summer home on Cape Cod, the place where Brown spends family summers with his brothers. We hope he hasn't been seeking election tips.
Can the Tories mend their fences?
In the meantime there is great relief on the Anglophile right that Michael Howard is stepping down, after Karl Rove declared him persona non grata at the White House for being rude to Blair. Getting on with the Bush administration will be a prime qualification for the next Tory leader, and speaking tours are already being arranged for some hopefuls. David Davis and Liam Fox are both counting on the help of John O'Sullivan, Margaret Thatcher's old speechwriter and amanuensis, who went to the US to edit the National Review and National Interest. Bright young sparks of the modernising Notting Hill set, like David Cameron and George Osborne, have their own ambassador in DC in the form of British-educated John Hulsman of the Heritage Foundation think tank. John Redwood has thoughtfully stayed in touch with former speaker Newt Gingrich since first getting to know him a decade ago and Malcolm Rifkind has cultivated useful friendships at that neocon haunt the American Enterprise Institute. But this is unlikely to do much good because Bush's partiality for Blair is not just based on Iraq. As part of his mending fences with Europe strategy, Bush has been persuaded by Condi Rice that European unity is still in America's long-term strategic interest. She even got Bush to say so during his European trip in February, so ambitious Tories who want Bush's backing had better be supportive of Brussels as well as sound on Iraq.
Republican succession
The race for the Republican succession is getting nasty fast. The Reverend Pat Robertson, still a powerful figure on the religious right, seems to have picked his candidate. Much to the dismay of Senate majority leader Bill Frist, who would crawl over broken glass to get the endorsement of the Rev with his television audiences of 8m, Robertson is talking up the claims of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani. This is a small earthquake. Giuliani has come out of a messy divorce, supports gay and abortion rights, and is a New Yorker whose name ends in a vowel. You would therefore expect the founder of the Christian Coalition to smear himself with garlic and brandish crucifixes whenever he heard Giuliani's name. But while noting that Giuliani does not "share all my particular points of view on social issues," Robertson has told ABC's This Week that "Rudy's a very good friend of mine and did a super job running the city of New York. I think he'd make a good president." Why back Rudy rather than deserving senators of the religious right like Sam Brownback of Kansas or George Allen of Virginia? The answer lies with the magnificently devious Karl Rove, who will do whatever it takes to ensure that John McCain does not succeed George Bush as the Republican standard-bearer in 2008. Rove has persuaded Robertson and others that only Giuliani can stop McCain. The question is whether Rove and his master are themselves preparing to back Giuliani, or are they planning for McCain and Giuliani to wipe each other out and leave the way clear for Governor Jeb Bush of Florida?
