US election: a final polls round-up

The end is nigh. Later today, the polling stations will shut, bringing an end to the ugliest US election campaign in recent memory. Unity is unlikely to follow. Half of the United States will heave a collective sigh of relief that the toxic opposition candidate circus has finally left town, and the other half will be horrified that it is there to stay, possibly for eight years.

By approximately 4am GMT tomorrow, the result should be called. Russia, the FBI, Miss Universe, leaked tapes and emails have all played a part in the race. Hollywood could not have devised such a plot. Public opinion polls have added to the spectacle, with Hillary Clinton forging ahead in October on the back of a strong televised debate performance and the publication of the Trump “groping tapes,” which damaged the GOP candidate’s image. Clinton’s support strengthened as the media seized on the sexual harassment allegations against her opponent. For a brief period, it seemed to be a done deal and Clinton supporters began to exhale.

Then came the FBI bombshell. The Bureau planned to reopen its investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server and immediately Trump surged in the polls. Nate Silver’s website “fivethirtyeight.com,” the gold standard for those tracking polls on a daily basis, showed that Clinton’s chances of winning the election fell from 74 per cent to 66 per cent in just a couple of days. By early November, Clinton’s lead held steady at a 3 point lead, helped by the FBI’s subsequent announcement that it had reached “no new conclusions” after reviewing her emails. The Clinton campaign appeared to be back on track and bathing in some much needed positive press.

The candidate schedules in the final days remained gruelling. In one day, Trump appeared at four events in two time zones. The same weekend, Clinton pulled out all the celebrity stops. Trump counts Sarah Palin, Hulk Hogan and Dennis Rodman among his devotees, but this is no match for Clinton's star-studded support. The Democrat may lack the personal cachet of Barack Obama, but she still got Beyoncé and Jay-Z sprinkling their stardust, with Madonna and Bruce Springsteen stumping for her at the 11^th hour. Once again in this race, style seems more important that substance as the conversation remains far removed from policy plans and leadership skills. Nonetheless, in a nation where a reality television show host may be the next president, celebrity endorsement matters now more than ever.

The final poll round-up shows Clinton now ahead by approximately 3.5 per cent, with the exact figure varying slightly, depending on the source. Esteemed academic and pundit Larry Sabato predicts the Democrat will remain comfortably ahead in the electoral college score with 322 seats compared to Trump’s 216. Nonetheless, there are some nail-biting elements that make this race far from a done deal. North Carolina and Florida can make or break this election, whilst Ohio and Nevada remain very tight. In the 2000 presidential election, the outcome came down to a mere 537 votes in Florida, and ever since this southern-but-liberal entity with its 29 electoral college votes has been very important. Even if Clinton loses Florida, she could still compensate in Michigan or Pennsylvania. Another reliable source, “realclearpolitics.com,” offered a final tally on 7^th November giving Clinton a national lead of 1.8 per cent in a neck-and-neck race or a 2.2 per cent advantage when taking third party candidates into account. A surprise Trump coup in the Democrat-leaning mid-west has not been ruled out, as he has canvassed heavily in these areas hard-hit by economic decline.

Of course, there is far more to this election than just the presidency. Whoever enters the White House next January could spend their administration beholden to a hostile Congress and any hopes of a Franklin D Roosevelt-style Hundred Days surge would be impossible. A Democrat in the Oval Office may face an ongoing Republican Congressional majority. President Trump might find himself having to negotiate a Senate controlled by Democrats unwilling, for example, to finance building a wall with Mexico.

This race is Clinton’s to lose, but even on election day, it is too close to call in advance. Predictions can be wrong and voters, especially the undecided, may flummox pollsters at the last moment. The candidates have agreed on just one issue in this fractious and divisive campaign: every single vote counts.