Ukip should enjoy the good times

Ukip supporters should make the most of their delight at the party’s showing in English local elections, because it is unlikely that the future will hold much good news for them. Consider how many times we have been here before: against the background of an unpopular national government, voters express their discontent by supporting alternative parties or candidates in local elections, only to return to the major parties at the only contest that really matters: the general election.

It is quite possible that Ukip will use the bounce provided by the local elections to win a handful of seats in parliament in 2015, leading to more celebrations at party headquarters, accompanied by more declarations that the party is here to stay. But its leaders and its strategists must surely be aware that the party faces several critical structural weaknesses.

First, Ukip is by definition a populist party, meaning that it claims to be outside the establishment and to side with the will of the people against the control of elites. By winning seats in government—even at the local level—it loses some of that populist aura and becomes more elitist and mainstream. Instead of sitting on the outside complaining about what government is up to, Ukip is now that much more a part of government and as such will be subject to a different set of expectations.

Second, we need to remember the dynamics of local government elections. Turnout is almost always low—as few as one in three voters usually make the trip to the polling station—and those who cast ballots are often either the faithful of marginal parties or those who want to send a critical message to the government of the day without using up their much more valuable general election vote.

Third, Ukip has until fairly recently been effectively a single-issue party, its platform founded on its opposition to British membership of the European Union. But ever since David Cameron’s January announcement of plans for a referendum on the EU, there has been a more balanced debate about the EU in Britain. Where eurosceptic politicians and media, along with Ukip, once had a near-monopoly in that debate, we have lately seen many people—particularly in the business sector—breaking their long silences and coming out in favour of EU membership. One result has been that the number of people favouring continued British membership of the EU has overtaken the number in favour of leaving.

Most importantly, with Ukip now becoming more mainstream, it will not be able to get away with its habit of playing free and loose with the facts when pronouncing on the EU. It has been able so far to rely heavily on the myth-building championed by its leaders and supported by the more eurosceptic British media, but its claims will in future be subject to much closer scrutiny. There will be a great deal more fact-checking going on, and as the myths about the EU are challenged, one of the foundation stones of Ukip policies will start to crumble.

So, Ukip leaders and supporters, make hay while the sun shines because things will never be the same again. Nigel Farage described last week’s local government results as a game-changer, and they were—but not in the way he meant. Those results are going to help move Britain closer to a more informed and constructive debate on EU membership, and the results are going to undermine the advantages that Ukip has enjoyed to date as a marginal populist party exploiting a widespread lack of interest in the EU. We will learn a great deal more in the months and years to come about what British membership of the EU actually means, and what a British exit could cost—and much of this will be a result of Ukip’s local election successes.

John's new book, Why Europe Matters, will be published by Palgrave Macmillan on 21st June