The post of EU high representative for foreign affairs may not have been advertised, but an orderly queue has formed for the job currently occupied by Javier Solana. Recruited in 1999 from Nato, where he was secretary-general, Solana has probably earned more air miles than any EU official past or present. Although he has overseen a gradual expansion of European foreign policy, his efforts were undermined first by the Iraq war, which divided national capitals, then by the failure of the European constitution. When the French and Dutch ditched the constitution last year, they also destroyed Solana's hopes of becoming the EU's first foreign minister. With the constitution in the deep freeze, countries like Britain have put a brake on plans to build up an EU diplomatic corps. Solana's second term in the job expires in 2009. Even if the EU foreign minister job is resurrected when heads of government confront the mess left behind by the failure of the constitution, Solana cannot expect to occupy it for any length of time.
To make matters worse, Solana's recent negotiations with Iran on its nuclear ambitions have not gone well. The EU has little to show for all its talks with Tehran. And there are questions about his health; he suffers from a persistent and painful back problem. So perhaps it was no big surprise when, in autumn, rumours surfaced that the French president, Jacques Chirac, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had decided to pension Solana off. The high representative's aides rebuffed suggestions that he would quit by the end of 2006, but were markedly less categorical about a 2007 departure. This has fuelled speculation about who will take over. Günther Verheugen, Germany's former Europe minister and now vice-president of the European commission, makes no secret of his ambitions for the job. But his habit of shooting from the hip would make him a high-risk choice, and recent press reports about his close relationship with his chef de cabinet, Petra Erler, have not helped his cause (see "Brussels diary," Prospect November 2006). Wolfgang Schüssel, Austria's outgoing chancellor, fancies the post too, though coming from a small, neutral nation he is far from an obvious candidate. Italian ex-premier, Giuliano Amato, could fit the bill, as might the former French foreign minister, Michel Barnier, who is less anti-American than most former occupants of the Quai d'Orsay. Barnier could count on the backing of Nicolas Sarkozy, were he to win the French presidential elections. But as one EU official puts it: "The Brits simply wouldn't want a Frenchman in the job." Perhaps the lack of a clear alternative will allow Solana to limp on, faute de mieux.
Turkey's troubled negotiations
There is no attempt to disguise the anger felt in Turkey about the stalling of their negotiations on EU membership, after talks broke down over the issue of trade restrictions with Cyprus. The Turkish premier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had already been under domestic pressure to pre-empt the EU by walking away from the table. But were he to do so, it would be hard to see the talks ever resuming. Turkish officials say that Ankara's considered reaction may be delayed for a few months until it is possible to judge more clearly whether or not the process is on its deathbed. They point out that the number of chapters—or negotiated policy areas—being frozen is less important than whether anything much happens in those that are supposedly active. They tell a rather dark joke based on a metaphor favoured by Olli Rehn, the EU's enlargement commissioner, who had been warning for some time of an imminent train crash in the EU's relations with Turkey. It goes like this: a speeding train, representing Turkey's journey towards the EU, is being blocked by a boulder. A Turkish official, looking down the line, sees the obstruction and calls his European counterpart in a state of panic, asking him what he is going to do about the looming pile-up. "Call my wife," replies the EU official, "so she can watch too."
Trading on emissions
For once, the EU is leading the world in an area of global importance: reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The European emissions trading system is up and running and Europe has the opportunity to shape the agenda. Even that most reluctant of Europeans, Gordon Brown, recently trumpeted the success of the EU in drawing non-EU Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein into the scheme. More significantly, the Republican governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has expressed interest. This is driven partly by the growing importance of environmental policy in the US, where public opinion seems to be shifting (on the west coast at least). But there is also anxiety in the US business community that it is missing out on a commercial opportunity for the future: trading in CO2 permits. Arnie recently toured a greenhouse gas-emissions credit trading desk in New York and noted that the main global market for trading emission credits is the EU emissions trading scheme. The first stage of the European scheme was not a resounding success because member states over-allocated allowances, causing the price at which carbon is traded to drop. Officials hope that phase two, which is now in preparation, will prove a clearer beacon to the world.
