Battle for the top job
Even for the nerds of Brussels it is something of a relief to turn away from "issues" and concentrate on personalities. An ideal opportunity is provided by the current race to become head of the European commission, after Prodi leaves in November. A successor must be agreed upon at a summit in June. The summiteers' choice then has to be submitted to the European parliament for approval. Normally this would be no problem. But the parliament is flexing its muscles. Hans-Gert P?ring, the head of the European People's party, the main centre-right grouping, is insisting that the new head of the commission reflects the will of the European people, as allegedly expressed in next June's elections to the European parliament. Translation: P?ring expects the centre-right to "win" the European elections, and is threatening to vote down a socialist candidate for president.
This is a shame, since the two outstanding candidates from inside the commission are both nominally socialists. G?Verheugen from Germany has piloted through the Prodi commission's major achievement-the enlargement of the EU-an exercise fraught with technical and political difficulties. Ant???? Vitorino, the justice commissioner from Portugal, is the commission's intellectual star and a fine technocrat with a keen, political sense-all qualities the commission sorely needs. However, if the EPP has its way, both men are goners. The same would be true of two ex-heads of government who are regarded as solid, if unexciting, choices from the left-Costas Simitis of Greece and Paavo Lipponen of Finland.
The options on the centre-right are not particularly enticing, however. The French and Germans are pushing for Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and now the longest serving head of government in the EU. His fans say he is intellectually sharp and a good deal-maker. His detractors say that it would be ridiculous to have a third commission president from Luxembourg-and complain that he would be in the pockets of the French and Germans. If Juncker is deemed to be a bit "old Europe," the same goes for Guy Verhofstadt, the Belgian prime minister. The people around Prodi are, for some reason, pushing for Wolfgang Sch?sel, the chancellor of Austria. But he has many strikes against him (apart from Prodi's support): he brought J?Haider into the Austrian government, he wears bow ties and he doesn't speak French well enough for Chirac.
So who does that leave? One possibility is Pat Cox, the current president of the European parliament. An Irish liberal, he is rated as an effective-if occasionally unstoppable-communicator in both French and English. He is also an economist by training, which should count in his favour given the commission's core competences over the internal market and competition. His current job means that he shouldn't have any problems getting approved by the parliament. But the heads of government of Europe may balk at offering such a plum job to someone who does not belong to their own charmed circle. Cox's detractors also say that he has never really run anything (the parliament doesn't count) and that nobody has ever heard of him. Cox's real problem, however, may be closer to home. The Irish government, led by Bertie Ahern, will chair the summit at which the final decision will be made and Ahern does not seem to be pushing his fellow countryman. Some reckon that he is embarrassed to do so, since the EU presidency is meant to be impartial. But Bertie does not embarrass easily. It may be instead that he feels no great warmth to a leading member of an opposition party in Ireland.
Mandy-will he or won't he?
If the race for commission president is still wide open, the competition to be Britain's sole commissioner in Brussels is said to be done and dusted-Peter Mandelson has apparently been offered the job and has accepted. There is some muttering in Brussels that if Mandy is considered damaged goods in Britain, he should not be foisted on the EU. But it is highly unlikely that Jean-Claude Juncker-or whoever-would turn down Tony's chosen one. Slightly more likely is a last-minute change of heart back in Britain. One Downing Street adviser mutters that if Blair intends to hold an election in spring 2005, he may need Mandy's helping hand. Or Mandy himself may fall victim to last-minute remorse at kissing goodbye to his ambition to be foreign secretary. But it is generally thought to be a done deal, in which case Roger Liddle-a long-time Mandelson collaborator who is increasingly out of the loop in Downing Street-may move to Brussels to work as his friend's chef de cabinet (although the fact that Liddle has never lived abroad and speaks no foreign languages might be a handicap in the shark-infested waters of the commission). Finding a good portfolio for Mandelson might be tricky. It is reckoned that the new commission will have to have a more hierarchical structure, if it is to work with 25 members. Mandy-no stranger to status anxiety-would not want to be too low in the pecking order. But Gerhard Schr? has put in a strong bid for a German to get the putative job of "super-commissioner" for the economy, and since Chris Patten will be stepping down from foreign affairs, it would be tricky to replace him with another Brit. Perhaps the right job would be trade-one of the few jobs in the commission with real power, and a portfolio that would allow Mandelson plenty of time in his favourite city: Washington DC.
