The future will happen elsewhere

We are not prepared for the rise of developing nations

by Jay Elwes / May 30, 2013 / Leave a comment

In his lecture at the LSE, former World Bank President James Wolfensohn raised doubts about the west’s ability to prepare for the future © Asia Society

Last night at the London School of Economics, James Wolfensohn, the former president of the World Bank addressed a lecture theatre of students, professors and journalists. Wolfensohn, a natural wag, dotted his speech with several noteworthy anecdotes, not least the story of his first trip to Nigeria which ended with his being arrested as a spy.

However, his message was anything other than jocund. We—the west—are going into the future unprepared. The world has changed under our feet, said Wolfensohn, and the people who run the developed world have failed adequately to adapt. He noted that when he started working at the World Bank in 1995, the developed nations of the west accounted for close to 80 per cent of global economic activity. However, said Wolfensohn, in the course of the next 40 years that share will decline sharply, and by around 2050 will be only 35 per cent. The remainder will be made up by Africa, China, India and other developing nations.

People over the age of 40 simply have no idea of the changes that are coming, he said. They are stuck in the past vision of the world, where power resides in a clutch of western nations—but they don’t get it. In contrast, he said, the developed world is preparing. They get what’s happening because it’s in their interests to acknowledge a future that will be to their benefit. This is why next year China will send over 200,000 students to study in the United States, while in contrast barely 5,000 Americans will study in China.

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DEBUG messsage: regular

The story shifts from east to west

George Magnus / October 17, 2013

As the west recovers and emerging economies start to struggle, the pattern of growth is...

Preview: The story shifts from east to west

George Magnus / October 17, 2013

As the west recovers and emerging economies start to struggle, the pattern of growth is...

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Comments

Mark Steven Conway
May 30, 2013 at 13:36
The West has not gone into decline, the rest are catching up. Despite the recession of the last five years the developed world will continue to see long term grow and dominate the G8 and G20. The United States and Europe as well as Japan and Australia and Canada will still dominate the world in military power, technological innovation and services. The rise of the rest does not represent a threat, it represents vast new markets for western goods and services, education is one good sector. As the article states 200,000 Chinese students a year are going to the United States and only 5000 a year going to China. A real marker of a profoundly changed global order will be when those figures are reversed.
Reply
Alyson
May 30, 2013 at 15:08
He has been saying this for a couple of years: 'THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD BANK, JAMES WOLFENSOHN, MAKES STUNNING CONFESSIONS AS HE ADDRESS GRADUATE STUDENTS AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY. HE REVEALS THE INSIDE HAND OF WORLD DOMINATION FROM PAST, TO THE PRESENT AND INTO THE FUTURE. THE SPEECH WAS MADE JANUARY 11TH, 2010. THE NEXT 19 MINUTES MAY OPEN YOUR MIND TO A VERY DELIBERATE WORLD! HE TELLS THE GRAD STUDENTS WHAT’S COMING, “A TECTONIC SHIFT” IN WEALTH FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. BUT HE DOESN’T TELL THE STUDENTS THAT IT IS HIS INSTITUTION, THE WORLD BANK, THAT’S DIRECTING AND CHANNELING THESE CHANGES. WOLFENSOHN’S OWN INVESTMENT FIRM IS IN CHINA, POISED TO PROFIT FROM THIS “IMMINENT SHIFT” IN GLOBAL WEALTH.' SEE FULL SPEECH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCPRhp [http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/world-banker-makes-stunning-confession] Love the musical sound track at the end.... Walden Bello has a slightly different perspective on how the west, with assistance from the world bank, the IMF and third world debt, sustained its insularity for so long. His book is called 'Dark Victory'. It was written before Europe joined the third world debtor countries in being in hoc to the bank(s).
Reply
A.F. Brooke
June 2, 2013 at 00:51
This certainly is one of those ideas nowadays thrown about, with vague reasoning and even vaguer implications. What does he exactly mean by this disruption and complacency? The article doesn't elaborate, which I'd hazard to guess is because the speaker himself did not dwell upon without any more clarity. There is an overarching reason--though not the only one--why comparatively so few Americans study in China: because Americans universities are overwhelmingly better than Chinese ones.
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Ramesh Raghuvanshi
June 3, 2013 at 18:18
Why western thinkers spreading fear phobia in western audiences.? Is developing countries really doing extraordinary progress?They are threat to rich western countries? I think so called western thinkers intentionally spreading these rumors for create great impulse of western youngsters so . they work hard.It is well known fact that western psyche based fear show them fear they arose with tremendous revenges and defeated imaginary enemies.Real fact is western counties established very systematically neocolonialism to looting more wealth from poor countries than colonial period..If James Wolfensohn honest enough with himself he to speak on horrible disparities between super rich and extreme poor all over the world.he to speak why last week there were riots in Sweden ?Only gift globalization given to world is expanding terrible inequalities between few super rich and wretched poor.
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Sheila Kaur
June 17, 2013 at 20:08
The eg of student exchange programs does raise a new concern, namely that not only are there pockets of 40 somethings in the G8 who may not be informed of the rise of the empowered 20something cohorts in Middle East, Africa and other emerging nations, but that strides are not now being made to ensure the younger ones are in a better position to be informed and participate in the new globalised arena which they will one day call 'normal'. Societal factors are key in shaping the newer, freer global society and with a bit of better reportage, one that is friendlier.
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