A report by "Change Britain" is the latest in a long line of flawed forecastsby Iain Begg / January 10, 2017 / Leave a comment
Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning US economist and (these days) New York Times columnist, once described the three kinds of economics: the “Greek letter” variant beloved of contributors to academic journals, with articles stuffed full of impenetrable equations; the “up and down” economics of the forecasting and instant comment industry; and the “airport” economics found in the latest best-selling economics books.
To this collection we should, in this post-truth era, now add “bonkers Brexit” economics, characterised by daft assumptions, sloppy empirical work and untenable conclusions. During the referendum campaign we had claims and counter-claims galore about how the economy would or would not fall of a cliff, with spuriously precise figures from the Treasury about how every household would be worse-off after Brexit by £4,300. There were outright lies about the £350m per week windfall from ending payments into the EU budget, figures by the Confederation of British Industry about gains of £3000 per year for British households from EU membership that seemed plucked out of thin air, and so on.