Brussels Diary: Socialism could make Blair EU President

In his ascent to the top, David Cameron has benefited a great deal from watching his foe Tony Blair. But now it looks as if Cameron may be doing Blair a favour in return, albeit accidentally. With growing expectations that the Irish will vote “yes” in an autumn referendum on the Lisbon treaty, Blair is back in contention for the job it creates: president of the European council. Before the Irish torpedoed the treaty last year, Blair had many opponents, mainly because of his part in the Iraq war.

Several things have brought him back into the running. The first is that in a post-Dubya world with Barack Obama wowing Europeans, Iraq and America are no longer toxic issues. The second is that the case for a big personality doing the job of president is more or less won.....



Last year, during France’s EU presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy demonstrated the impact that could have during both the conflict in Georgia and the financial meltdown. Now the reverse has been shown too. The implosion of the Czech presidency of the EU culminated in the fall of the government in Prague and wild comments by the country’s prime minister, Mirek Topolánek. Speaking to the European parliament, he derided the US response to the economic crisis, underlining the fact that leaders from small countries sometimes find it hard to distinguish between national and international politics. The final factor helping Blair is the balance of power within the EU—and this is where Cameron comes in. In June the European elections will determine the context within which a series of big appointments will be made. Providing the Lisbon treaty is approved, this will include a European council president and a foreign minister, as well as president of the European commission. The EU heads of government will find it hard to ignore the results of the European elections when they fill these jobs. With every European economy suffering, the centre right EPP-ED—currently the biggest bloc in the European parliament—is under pressure. Moreover, Cameron’s determination to pull the British Conservatives out of the group (along with Topolanek’s Czech ODS party) means that the Socialist group, where the British Labour party sits, may emerge from the elections as the biggest bloc. If José Manuel Barroso wins his battle for reappointment as commission president, it will be more difficult to appoint another figure from the centre-right as council president. When he was prime minister, Blair did everything he could to distance himself from his socialist roots. But, with the potential prize of a top EU job, that may be about to change.

This article was originally published in Prospect's May print edition, available from 30th April .