• Home
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Date/Time
  • Login
  • Subscribe

logo

  • Home
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
Home
  • Home
  • Blogs
  • Politics
  • Economics & Finance
  • World
  • Arts & Books
  • Life
  • Science
  • Philosophy
  • Subscribe
  • Events
  • Home

Peter Kellner

The Pollster

Ukip’s demise

The party’s losses will, with Labour’s decline, be the big story of June’s general election

by Peter Kellner / May 8, 2017 / Leave a comment
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Ukip leader Paul Nuttall ©Nick Ansell/PA Wire/PA Images

Just three years ago, Ukip came first in a national election, when its candidates for the European Parliament won more votes than those of any other British party. On 8th June, it will come fourth at best—and it would collapse to sixth place if, as is now perfectly possible, it wins fewer votes than the Greens and Scottish National Party. It will almost certainly have no MPs. This, as much as Labour’s weakness, is the big story of the general election, and the two are connected.

Last week’s local elections make clear the problem. Ukip lost every council seat it was defending, and picked up just one new councillor in Lancashire. Its national share of the vote tumbled from 22 per cent in the same election in 2013 to 4 per cent last week. Labour slipped only one point, from 29 per cent to 28 per cent, yet lost far more seats than anyone predicted beforehand. The Liberal Democrats added 4 points to their vote share (up from 14 per cent to 18 per cent); they might have expected this to translate into a larger number of councillors, but in the event they lost more seats than they gained.

Put another way: if we combine the vote shares for Conservatives (up 13 points to 39 per cent) and Ukip on the one hand, and Labour, Lib Dem and Green on the other, then last week saw an overall 4 per cent swing in votes since 2013 from right to left—but a clear net shift of more than 400 seats from left to right, as the Tories’ 563 gains outnumbered Ukip’s 145 losses.

There is a reason for this contrast between votes and seats, and it will also apply to the outcome of the general election. Under our first-past-the-post voting system, the nu…

YOU’VE HIT THE LIMIT

You have now reached your limit of 3 free articles in the last 30 days.
But don’t worry! You can get another 7 articles absolutely free, simply by entering your email address in the box below.

When you register we’ll also send you a free e-book—Writing with punch—which includes some of the finest writing from our archive of 22 years. And we’ll also send you a weekly newsletter with the best new ideas in politics and philosophy of culture, which you can of course unsubscribe from at any time







Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

17393157225c6eb65ddc51f9.38027766

Go to comments

Related articles

How to design a second referendum ballot 
Wolfgang Ernst / January 23, 2019

On the difficulties of giving a choice
Did the SDP really split the left in 1983?
Matt Singh / February 20, 2019
To understand the gang of seven’s chance of success it’s important to get the history...
Share with friends
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Email

Comments

No comments yet

Prospect's free newsletter

The big ideas that are shaping our world—straight to your inbox. PLUS a free e-book and 7 articles of your choosing on the Prospect website.

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information. Click here to learn more about these purposes and how we use your data. You will be able to opt-out of further contact on the next page and in all our communications.

This Month's Magazine

Perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus.

Prospect is the leading magazine of ideas. Each month it is packed with the finest writing on politics, culture, economics and ideas. Subscribe today and join the debate.

Subscribe

Most Popular

  • Read
  • Commented

This proposal for breaking the Brexit deadlock deserves serious consideration

Did the SDP really split the left in 1983?

The Duel: Has modern architecture ruined Britain?

The invigorating strangeness of Friedrich Nietzsche

The Conservative Party has a problem—it’s no longer conservative

5 Comments

The impact of Brexit on services has not received nearly enough attention

2 Comments

Even if Britain stays in Europe, we need a new constitutional settlement

2 Comments

If May's deal is in flames, Labour should not seek to put out the fire

2 Comments

The naïve optimism of Liam Fox

2 Comments

About this author

Peter Kellner
Peter Kellner is former President of YouGov and a political analyst and commentator
More by this author

More by Peter Kellner

Labour conference: a “staging post” on the way to a people’s vote?
September 18, 2018
Do centrists know how to count?
September 10, 2018
Right now, Theresa May’s best friend is Boris Johnson
August 9, 2018

Next Prospect events

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Diarmaid MacCulloch

    London, 2019-05-20

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Sue Prideaux

    2019-04-15

  • Details

    Prospect Book Club—Andrew Roberts

    2019-03-14

See more events

Sponsored features

  • The future of transport: taking Britain into the fast lane

  • Reforming the pension system to work for the many

  • Putting savers in the driving seat: getting the pensions dashboard right

  • To fix the housing crisis we need fresh thinking

  • Tata Steel UK: Driving innovation for the future of mobility

PrimeTime

The magazine is owned and supported by the Resolution Group, as part of its not-for-profit, public interest activities.

Follow us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • RSS

Editorial

Editor: Tom Clark
Deputy Editor: Steve Bloomfield
Managing Editor (Arts & Books): Sameer Rahim
Head of Digital: Stephanie Boland
Deputy Digital Editor (Political Correspondent): Alex Dean
Creative Director: Mike Turner
Production Editor & Designer: Chris Tilbury
US Writer-at-Large: Sam Tanenhaus

Commercial

Commercial Director: Alex Stevenson
Head of Marketing: Paul Mortimer
Marketing and Circulations Executive: James Hawkins
Programme Coordinator: Oliver James Ward
Head of Advertising Sales: Adam Kinlan 020 3372 2934
Senior Account Manager: Dominic Slonecki 0203 372 2972

  • Home
  • Advertising
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Acceptable Use Policy
© Prospect Publishing Limited
×
Login
Login with your subscriber account:
You need a valid subscription to login.
I am
Remember Me


Forgotten password?

Or enter with social networking:
Login to post comments using social media accounts.
  • With Twitter
  • Connect
  • With Google +
×
Register Now

Register today and access any 7 articles on the Prospect’s website for FREE in the next 30 days..
PLUS find out about the big ideas that will shape our world—with Prospect’s FREE newsletter sent to your inbox. We'll even send you our e-book—Writing with punch—with some of the finest writing from the Prospect archive, at no extra cost!

Not Now, Thanks

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with our newsletter, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click to learn more about these interests and how we use your data. You will be able to object to this processing on the next page and in all our communications.

×
You’ve got full access!

It looks like you are a Prospect subscriber.

Prospect subscribers have full access to all the great content on our website, including our entire archive.

If you do not know your login details, simply close this pop-up and click 'Login' on the black bar at the top of the screen, then click 'Forgotten password?', enter your email address and press 'Submit'. Your password will then be emailed to you.

Thank you for your support of Prospect and we hope that you enjoy everything the site has to offer.

This site uses cookies to improve the user experience. By using this site, you agree that we can set and use these cookies. For more details on the cookies we use and how to manage them, see our Privacy and Cookie Policy.