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Why we can’t trust recent polling showing a ten point lead for Remain

It is important to resist the temptation to cherry-pick polls that support one’s case

By Peter Kellner  

Demonstrators protest Brexit outside parliament. Photo: NurPhoto/SIPA USA/PA Images

Sorry, Remainers. The BMG poll for the Independent, which caused such a stir over the weekend, looks wrong. The Remain lead, which has hovered around 1-4 per cent in recent weeks, has NOT suddenly widened to ten points in the wake of the government’s embarrassing defeat last week in the House of Commons.

Here are four reasons to be wary of BMG’s figures.

First, they are mainly driven by a seemingly huge shift in people who did not vote…

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