Neither Obama or Clinton will win this year’s presidential election. If either do it would be the greatest shock in US politics since the war.
There has never been a black president, there has never been a woman president but the chances are that sooner or later both will happen. What is less likely, much less likely, for the foreseeable future, is that America will elect a northern liberal.
Look at the record. Since 1945, six Democrats have been elected President. Clinton (1992, 1996) was from Arkansas, Carter (1976) was from Georgia, Johnson (1964) was from Texas) and Harry Truman (1948) was from Missouri. Only one, John F Kennedy, in 1960, was from the North. Five out of six Democratic presidents since the war have come from the South; one from the North. Furthermore, Kennedy won by the slightest of margins, winning 49.7% of the popular vote, against Richard Nixon’s 49.5% and to this day there are rumours of dodgy practices in Illinois, a crucial state in the election, which Kennedy won by less than 10,000 votes. Of the six, it is worth adding, only Johnson made well over 50% of the popular vote, when he trounced Goldwater in 1964, whereas six post-war Republicans have won considerably more than 50%.
If Southern Democrats have tended to win, Northern Democrats have tended to lose. John Kerry (2004) and Dukakis (1988) both came from Massachusetts. Mondale (1984) and Hubert Humphrey (1968) from Minnesota. Adlai Stevenson (1952, 1956) was a liberal from Illinois. George McGovern, thrashed in 1972, came from South Dakota. Of the seven candidates, five lost by between 7.8% and 23.2% of the popular vote. Only Kerry and Humphrey came close. All lost to Republicans from the South-West: Bush Sr and Jr and Eisenhower all came from Texas, Reagan and Nixon both came from California.
To sum up, every time a Northern Democrat has run for US President they have lost – except in 1960 by a slight margin. Every time a Southern Democrat has run they have won except when Al Gore of Tennessee lost by a tiny margin to Bush (2000) and when Carter lost to Reagan in 1980.
Obama is not just black (only the 5th black Senator in US history), he is the junior Senator for Illinois. Clinton is not just a woman, she is a Senator for New York. Both represent urban-industrial Northern states. Of course, it is possible that one will win as Kennedy did in 1960, especially if they run with a high-profile Southerner as Kennedy ran with the Texan, Johnson. However, it would be the greatest upset in post-war American electoral history. That doesn’t mean the Democrats won’t choose one or another. They have a terrific record for choosing impossible candidates like Kerry, Dukakis and McGovern. But the odds are that the next Democrat President will be a White Male Senator or Governor from the South in their 40s or 50s.
