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The SNP’s second referendum strategy won’t work

Scots won't go for independence at any cost

by John McTernan / February 28, 2017 / Leave a comment
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Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon meet at Bute House in Edinburgh ©Andrew Milligan PA Archive/PA Images

It is reported that No. 10 is concerned about the possibility of Nicola Sturgeon announcing a second Scottish independence referendum at the same time that Theresa May triggers Article 50. Indeed, today Sturgeon told May that she has a “cast-iron mandate” to call one. Together with the looming prospect of direct rule being re-imposed in Northern Ireland this does look like a terrifying constitutional trifecta. Does the government really need to worry, though?

It is true that since its loss in the 2014 independence referendum, the Scottish National Party has electorally gone from strength to strength. Sweeping the board in Scotland in the 2015 General Election, leaving only three MPs from other parties—one each for Labour, the Lib Dems and the Scottish Tories. On the bounce it won government in the Scottish Parliament for a third term. And it now has high hopes for May’s council elections. But the real prize has always been a second referendum.

The nationalists get very upset if Scotland is ever called a one party state. The more relevant accusation here is that the SNP is a one purpose party. Independence at any costs. Every opportunity is taken to talk about a second referendum. And Brexit has provided a plethora of platforms for this. The strategy is clear: normalise the concept of a “neverendum”—the referendum that is held again and again until you get the right result—by sheer volume of repetition.

There are, however real obstacles in the way of a second referendum. First, there is the little matte…

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Comments

  1. PETER BURNETT
    March 18, 2017 at 16:28
    Extraordinary, the short-sighted stupidity of Mrs. May and all those English Tories (and Labour politicians) telling Scots what they, the Scots, think and what they’re supposed to. What have they been smoking? Or do they really want an end to the Union? For that’s what they’ll achieve.
  2. Roy Wilson
    April 17, 2017 at 21:29
    I think 49 SNP out of 52 MP,s in parliament I don't see why we need to ask for any permit and I don't know who you are asking to think we do not want another referendum must be in your dreams

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About this author

John McTernan
John McTernan is a political strategist and commentator
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