Why should I care?
Assuming you're not a Scottish Labour party member, you should care because Labour's fate in Scotland will heavily influence the makeup of our next parliament.For election observers based in "rUK, " Scottish politics has long seemed as reliable as the hangover curing properties of Irn Bru. Since the mid-90s, Scottish people have voted Labour (mostly) or Lib Dem (a bit) in general elections. When you squinted your eyes and looked at the map, it was more or less red. But basically, English, Northern Irish and Welsh people knew which of the "proper parties" their Scottish brethren would be going in for, and a lot of the fervent forecasting that went on was dedicated to working out what the rest of the isles would do.
That's changed. As in the rest of Britain, the "proper parties" aren't looking so healthy up there.
I've taken the prediction from this analysis by Wings Over Scotland, who are pro-independence, but not SNP supporters. They could be off in terms of the exact numbers, but their data comes from a YouGov poll which, along with another by IPSOS Mori, showed rather impressive leads for Nicola Sturgeon's party.
This Saturday's result matters because, if Labour can't recover their support in Scotland and hold more seats against the SNP, we're going to see the SNP become an unprecedented force in Westminster, and Labour will have next to no chance of a majority. Whoever gets the job will, first and foremost, have this as their task.
How does it work?
Scottish Labour runs its elections over three tiers, with Unions and Affiliates, Parliamentarians and ordinary members each given an equal say in deciding the outcome. Voting closed on Wednesday, with the three day gap before the winner is announced on Saturday presumably spent working out the ludicrously complex system and wondering why they didn't switch to one-member-one-vote like the UK party have. Readers will remember that the last UK leadership election was still fought under this system, which is why "Red Ed" got in thanks to the backing of "union barons".
Who's in the race?
Neil Findlay (the hard lefty one)
I met Dennis the menace and Gnasher today supporting the Dogs trust pic.twitter.com/bG1uMXBCcT — Neil Findlay (@Neil_FindlayMSP) December 11, 2014
Findlay is a Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for the central Scottish region of the Lothians.
His background is about as Labour as they come: he was elected after working as a bricklayer, a housing officer and latterly a teacher, having joined the Labour party "following the miners' strike and during the poll tax" (he claims on his website). He is the health spokesman for Labour's shadow cabinet in the Scottish parliament.
With the support of nine out of the 11 unions which nominate a candidate, including Unite, Unison, Aslef, the TSSA, the NUM and the RMT, Findlay has safely secured the backing of the left of the party. But he suffered early in his campaign from a lower profile among ordinary party members, and has a strained relationship with the party in London, who might see such an unashamedly left-wing figure as more trouble than he's worth in their general election campaign. "Findlay represents pain and isn’t the solution," one Miliband advisor told The Independent.
There is a school of thought that suggests a left-winger might reconnect Labour with its grassroots at a time the Scottish party is seen as too in thrall to London. But the SNP might also find it easy to do down a candidate boosted into place by union backing without broader support.
Policy priorities: Equality of wages and healthcare.
In his own words:
"For me, the clue is in the name “Labour”. We need to be, and be seen to be, the party that stands up for working people; the party of more and better jobs; 50,000 more social houses" Guardian Scottish Labour leadership Q+A
Jim Murphy (aka McBlair)
I had a feeling I was going to win something this week. Was voted Man of the Match in football game for the Soldiers Charity this morning. — Jim Murphy (@jimmurphymp) December 10, 2014
Round Westminster way, it's widely said that Jim Murphy's British political career ended the day he picked the wrong Miliband: with Douglas Alexander he ran David's campaign for the party leadership in 2010. Since then, he's been somewhat underused with low-profile Shadow Cabinet roles in Defence and International Development. Don't write him off as a campaigner though: he ran Labour's 2010 campaign in Scotland, securing a 3 per cent swing to the party even as it suffered defeat elsewhere. His tour of "100 towns in 100 days" during the referendum campaign was admired by figures from across the three main Unionist parties. He doesn't drink or eat meat, and is often described as a tireless worker.
Murphy is in many ways a quintessential New Labour politician. In Holyrood, he's known by his first name, Tony "call me Tony" Blair style. His East Renfrewshire Westminster seat was hard-won off the Tories. He has the support of Blair's former Director of Political Operations (and Prospect contributor) John McTernan. He also has serious national government experience: under the last Labour government he was Scottish Secretary, a Europe Minister and a Work and Pensions Minister. He also voted for military action in Iraq.
In this race, he may be losing to Findlay on the unions but is thought to have majority support among Labour politicians. Ordinary Labour members are harder to guess, but polling earlier in the campaign suggested he was ahead.
You can't get more "Westminster bubble" than a former Cabinet minister, but supporters hope that his intimate knowledge of Scotland and personal charm will play to Murphy's advantage in the battle with the SNP.
Policy priorities: What else? Education, education education! He has said he will reintroduce Scotland's old chartered teacher status scheme, scrapped by the SNP in 2012. He also emphasises the importance of economic growth to public services in Scotland.
In his own words:
"I want to convince people that Scottish Labour has a confident, positive vision for what Scotland can achieve, not by shouting at them or our opponents, but by showing how we can create the better and fairer country that we all want to live in."
Guardian Scottish Labour leadership Q+A
Sarah Boyack (the least likely to)
Media tells a compelling story for Sarah.One of Holyrood's most experienced SNPs, Boyack has been in her Edinburgh Central seat since the first Scottish parliament elections in 1999. She served as Transport Minister in Labour's first Scottish government.
— Sarah Boyack MSP (@SarahBoyackMSP) December 7, 2014
Boyack ran on a centrist platform in these elections, and as such has been rather drowned out, particularly in the English press, as the Findlay-Murphy battle represents quite neatly the existential battle for the soul of Labour and is thus a lot more exciting to write about. She was nominated on the support of 10 parliamentarians, against Findlay's 11 and Murphy's 27.
A longstanding and passionate advocate of devolution, Boyack, in the unlikely event she got the job, would be seen as committed to getting Scotland the power it wants, and would be a match for Sturgeon in heavy policy debates.
Her campaign hasn't done much to inspire though, and the bookmakers taking bets on the race have her at 20/1 or higher.
Policy priorities: Last week, Boyack published her "100 ideas for a new Scotland," which set out a social justice-driven vision for Scottish government.
In her own words:
"The Smith commission gives us what most people want—a stronger, more accountable Scottish parliament within the UK... The issue now is how are those powers used"
Guardian Scottish Labour leadership Q+A
