Scottish independence: Will Yes or No get the final floating voters?

The big Financial Times headline on Tuesday was the kind that pollsters love—but many other people dread: "YouGov’s Scottish poll has investors rushing for cover.” We had shown the Yes vote in Scotland’s referendum climbing from 39 per cent to 47 per cent in just four weeks. But, to make what should be an obvious point, YouGov is merely the messenger. We detected a surge in Yes support; we did not invent it. The drama is unfolding on the streets of Scotland, not inside YouGov’s computer.

Equally, to be a bit more personal, I reject the notion, that has gained ground in the blogosphere, that I was spouting nonsense earlier this year by predicting a big and certain No victory. The quote used to mock me is from an analysis of mine in July: “Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.”

That quote is accurate but incomplete. Here’s the full sentence: “Unless things change markedly in the next eleven weeks, Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come.” (emphasis added) As No was then leading Yes by around 60-40 per cent, and had done for months, that was not a rash prediction but a statement of the blindingly obvious.

Well, things have changed dramatically. Alex Salmond has managed to neutralise some of the fear of independence that was keeping Labour and Lib Dem supporters in the “no” camp. He is now beginning to persuade them that Tory England will stop progressive Scotland from pursuing the policies it wants, if independence is rejected.

What, then, will happen in the final fortnight? It looks like a contest between two forces: Yes momentum versus the pull of the status quo. If polls over the next few days show a continuing shift to Yes, then this could affect the psychology of the (small) number of voters who are still up for grabs—the don’t knows and those who veer one side or the other without feeling firm in their choice. If Yes looks like winning, then this may become self-fulfilling, as some people without strong opinions will want to be on the winning side.

Against that, the story of constitutional referenda round the world is that some people who like the general idea of change get cold feet as decision day approaches. They look over the cliff edge and, at the last moment, decide not to jump off.

Which of those forces will prove greater between now and September 18th? Let me say with all the force and clarity at my command: I don’t know.