Scottish independence: Vote Yes and get the Tories

 

Scottish protesters bemoan David Cameron outside of a speech in Glasgow—but would voting Yes hand their future to the Tories? © Danny Lawson/PA Wire/Press Association Images

Here is a modest proposal for Better Together, the campaign trying to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom.

YouGov’s recent polls show you are losing two key arguments: increasingly, Scottish voters think London’s politicians are bluffing when they say an independent Scotland couldn’t keep the pound; and Alex Salmond is persuading increasing numbers of Labour supporters that their best chance of a fairer, more progressive Scotland is to get London off their backs and banish the ability of Conservative governments, now and in the future, to tell Scotland what to do.

My suggestion is that, like a judo black belt, Better Together should use the power of Salmond’s argument and turn it against him. Accept that, if Scotland votes Yes next week, London and Edinburgh will have to come to a deal on the currency. Let Scotland keep the pound. But make sure that it understands the consequences. Its interest rates, fiscal stance and overall economic strategy will be set in London. Scotland won’t be able to boost public spending without putting up taxes—and in practice, its tax rates will have to be close to England’s. Oh, and while we are about it, part of any London-Edinburgh deal is likely to include an acceptance that the Royal Navy will keep its nuclear base in Faslane.

In other words, a large part of Scotland’s future will still be decided by ministers and MPs at Westminster. Under independence, MPs will all come from England, Wales or Northern Ireland. And because none of them come from Scotland, which currently has 41 Labour and only one Tory MPs in the House of Commons, independence would severely damage Labour’s chances of winning future elections.

The two options boil down to this: Scotland votes No, continues to send MPs to Westminster who can participate in the decisions of future British governments which will from time to time be Labour-led;

Or:

Scotland votes Yes, stops sending MPs to Westminster and becomes a supplicant seeking generous behaviour by governments that are more likely to be Conservative.

The lesson is clear. Better Together should tell Scottish voters that they can keep the pound whatever the result of next week’s referendum. But that carries a price. Scotland’s powers to act independently will be severely limited. If Scotland is to remain part of a Britain-wide currency union whatever happens next week, the best way to minimise Tory influence north of the border in the years ahead is to vote No.