Newark result: a death knell for Ukip's Westminster hopes?

The Prospector spoke to Peter Kellner, President of YouGov the polling company, about yesterday's by-election result in Newark. The Conservative party held the seat, which was won by the party at the last election with a majority of 16,000. Patrick Mercer, the former MP for Newark, resigned after allegations concerning cash for questions. His resignation triggered the by-election.

Speaking to the Prospector, Kellner said:

"Newark is good for the Conservatives, disappointing for Ukip, poor for Labour and terrible for the Liberal Democrats.

"The Tories have won a by-election in government for the first time since William Hague held Richmond 25 years ago. And you have to go back 30 years, when Michael Portillo's victory in Southgate, to find a Conservative government candidate winning a bigger share of the vote.

"A year ago, Ukip's 26 per cent would have been regarded as outstanding, but it falls short of some of the expectations following its success in last month's elections to the European Parliament. This result must cast doubt on its ability to win any seats in the House of Commons in next year's general election."

The Newark results in full:

Conservative Party 17,431 45 per cent (-8.9)

Ukip 10,028 25.9 per cent (+22.1)

Labour 6,842 17.7 per cent (-4.7)

Liberal Democrats 1,004 2.6 per cent (-17.4)

Turnout: 52.8 per cent