Over the past six months, various crucial election questions have arisen. Tonight, as the results roll in, we will finally know the answers to some of them. Here's our guide to the key issues for election night, and when and where you need to be to make sense of them.
(All timings are based on estimates by the Press Association and are subject to change)
When will we know the key Scottish scalps?
If Labour loses in Rutherglen and Hamilton West (LAB) and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (LAB), both declaring at 2am, Scottish leader Jim Murphy is going to start getting very worried indeed—both are among the party's most likely seats to hold against the SNP. He'll be even more tense an hour later: if he loses his Renfrewshire East seat, declaring at 3am, it might be time to start welcoming our new Scottish overlords. Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander's Paisley seat also declares at 3am and could mark one of the SNP's biggest scalps.
On the other side of the coin, if the SNP don't win in places where they appear to be strong like Dundee West (LAB), declaring at 2.30am, or Ochil and South Perthshire (LAB), declaring at 3am, Sturgeon's smile might start to fade. If they lose in a number of the Glasgow seats, all declaring at 3am, something has gone seriously wrong for them.
As a side note, look out for whether Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson's combative charisma has translated into actual power by following the count in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (CON), declaring at 4am, and her key targets Dumfries and Galloway (LAB), declaring at 4am, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LIB), declaring at 4.30am.
The swings that could make the difference:
Nuneaton (CON) declares at 1am. The Tories' majority here is slim and Labour have been fighting hard. If Miliband's party don't take it, things might be about to go wrong for them. Other key Conservative seats which Labour are said to be targeting include Carlisle (CON), declaring at 3am, Bristol North West (CON), declaring at 3am, and Stroud (CON), declaring at 4am. The Bristol seat has been a bellwether since 1974, so could be of particular interest.
London is expected to turn predominantly red, with Labour building on their existing strengths in the capital. That includes several seats which Labour once thought they'd have no chance in, but now reckon they could take. Watch out for seats like Battersea (CON), at 2am, Bermondsey and Old Southwark (LIB), at 3am, and Finchley and Golders Green (CON), at 5am. If they fall to Labour, things could be looking good for Ed, depending on how the night is going elsewhere. This will also reflect well on Sadiq Khan, who has masterminded Labour's London campaign. He's thought to be planning a London Mayoral bid and will be looking for any kudos that could help his chances.
The final days of the election in pictures:
[gallery ids="33193,33194,33195,33197,33198,33199,33200,33201"]
Clegg’s key moments:
The Lib Dems could face some high-profile losses. Chief among these is Clegg himself, who is under threat from an energetic young Labour challenger in his Sheffield Hallam seat. The latest poll suggests he should be fine, but it's worth tuning in for the nail-biting finish at 4.30am. Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and Clegg's number 2 in the coalition, is widely expected to fall to the SNP. His Inverness seat declares at 5am. Simon Hughes, a Coalition justice minister, might fall to Labour in Bermondsey—we'll know if he has at 3am, and senior party figures are worried about Lynne Featherstone, a Home Office Minister, who might also fall to Labour. Her Hornsey constituency declares at 3am. The Tories are trying to unseat Vince Cable in Twickenham, which declares at 4am.
Otherwise, the Conservatives are targeting great swathes of Lib Dem seats, including several in the South West. The last of these, St Ives, is also the last seat in the country to declare, expected at 1pm on Friday.
Track the progress of the People's Army:
Ukip's most likely victories are in Thurrock (CON), declaring at 3am, Clacton (Ukip), declaring at 4.30am, and the all-important Thanet South (CON)—Farage's contested seat, declaring at 6am. If the party takes all of these it will have done well, given the tough campaign it has had. If it also retains Rochester and Strood (Ukip), declaring at 5am, and wins the target seats of Castle Point (CON), declaring at 2am, and/or Great Grimsby (LAB), declaring at 3.30am, it's time for Nigel and his entourage to break out the champagne (or down pints of bitter.)
Conversely, if Farage loses in Thanet South, he has said he will stand down, and in the unlikely event that the party wins no seats (Clacton is its most likely win due to the convincing majority Tory defector Douglas Carswell secured in the recent by-election) he has also promised to stand down.
It's worth keeping an eye on Ukip-friendly Labour seats, particularly in the north, to see how many good second places Farage's party gets. Rotherham (LAB), declaring at 3am, Rother Valley (LAB), declaring at 3am, Dudley North (LAB), declaring at 4am, Plymouth Moor View (LAB), declaring at 4am, along with Great Grimsby, were all named in a Fabian Society report last year as places where Labour was under threat from the party.
When will we know if the party has faded out:
Brighton Pavilion (GREEN), declaring at 5am, is an almost certain win for the Greens. Its MP Caroline Lucas—who has won endorsements from wild-haired sages Russell Brand and Brian May—has been an effective and well-respected campaigner during this parliament.
Elsewhere, Bristol West (LIB), declaring at 3am, and Norwich South (LIB), declaring at 4.30am, are the only other two places the Greens stand any reasonable chance of winning. Otherwise, it's worth looking out for what they do to the Labour vote in seats where they threaten Ed Miliband's party. See the list according to BuzzFeed here.
Guide compiled by Josh Lowe, Dipo Faloyin and Serena Kutchinsky
(All timings are based on estimates by the Press Association and are subject to change)
Labour vs the SNP: tremor or earthquake?
Arguably the most important story of the long election campaign has been the collapse of Scottish Labour and the rise of the SNP. For decades the dominant force in Scottish politics, the Labour party could be facing wipeout. A series of devastating polls have shown a colossal, and growing, increase in support for Nicola Sturgeon's party in the wake of last September's referendum, largely at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems. One poll even suggested the SNP could win all 59 Scottish seats. If they win anything close to that, you'll need to watch closely in the coming days for what influence they try to exert over the Labour party—Sturgeon has reportedly told senior SNP figures to be in London by Saturday to begin talks with Labour, despite Miliband’s repeated claims that he won’t do a deal with the nationalists. If they win much less than expected, it will be fascinating to see what impact it has on Sturgeon and her party’s popularity in the 2016 Scottish parliament elections.When will we know the key Scottish scalps?
If Labour loses in Rutherglen and Hamilton West (LAB) and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (LAB), both declaring at 2am, Scottish leader Jim Murphy is going to start getting very worried indeed—both are among the party's most likely seats to hold against the SNP. He'll be even more tense an hour later: if he loses his Renfrewshire East seat, declaring at 3am, it might be time to start welcoming our new Scottish overlords. Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander's Paisley seat also declares at 3am and could mark one of the SNP's biggest scalps.
On the other side of the coin, if the SNP don't win in places where they appear to be strong like Dundee West (LAB), declaring at 2.30am, or Ochil and South Perthshire (LAB), declaring at 3am, Sturgeon's smile might start to fade. If they lose in a number of the Glasgow seats, all declaring at 3am, something has gone seriously wrong for them.
As a side note, look out for whether Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson's combative charisma has translated into actual power by following the count in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (CON), declaring at 4am, and her key targets Dumfries and Galloway (LAB), declaring at 4am, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LIB), declaring at 4.30am.
Tories vs Labour: the face off
As both men are fond of reminding us, despite all the complexity, we can be fairly sure that only Ed Miliband or David Cameron is going to end up as prime minister. While it's possible for either man to cobble together a government despite not winning the most seats, every seat counts for both of them. The Tories will be focused on minimising their losses to Labour; for every one they lose to Ed Miliband's party, they need to gain two to make up the shortfall. Labour, meanwhile, need to take as many as possible from the Tories to make up for their losses in Scotland. Both are also focused on picking up as many seats as possible from the Lib Dems, who are widely expected to lose something like half of their 57 seats.The swings that could make the difference:
Nuneaton (CON) declares at 1am. The Tories' majority here is slim and Labour have been fighting hard. If Miliband's party don't take it, things might be about to go wrong for them. Other key Conservative seats which Labour are said to be targeting include Carlisle (CON), declaring at 3am, Bristol North West (CON), declaring at 3am, and Stroud (CON), declaring at 4am. The Bristol seat has been a bellwether since 1974, so could be of particular interest.
London is expected to turn predominantly red, with Labour building on their existing strengths in the capital. That includes several seats which Labour once thought they'd have no chance in, but now reckon they could take. Watch out for seats like Battersea (CON), at 2am, Bermondsey and Old Southwark (LIB), at 3am, and Finchley and Golders Green (CON), at 5am. If they fall to Labour, things could be looking good for Ed, depending on how the night is going elsewhere. This will also reflect well on Sadiq Khan, who has masterminded Labour's London campaign. He's thought to be planning a London Mayoral bid and will be looking for any kudos that could help his chances.
The final days of the election in pictures:
[gallery ids="33193,33194,33195,33197,33198,33199,33200,33201"]
Is all lost for the Lib Dems?
When Nick Clegg decided to lead the Lib Dems into Coalition five years ago, he knew there would be trouble ahead, but could not have predicted the scale of his party’s collapse in the polls. Since his U-turn on tuition fees in 2010, his party have slumped and now languish below Ukip. But the Lib Dems have earned praise in the press for their focus on key issues like mental health and sustainability, and the party says it has held back the Tories from lurching too far to the right. More importantly, individual Lib Dem MPs often poll well above their party. Will strong local bases and Nick's reasoned appeals to the electorate that the Lib Dems be the Tories’ heart and Labour’s brain about be enough to save them? Or do they face a wipeout?Clegg’s key moments:
The Lib Dems could face some high-profile losses. Chief among these is Clegg himself, who is under threat from an energetic young Labour challenger in his Sheffield Hallam seat. The latest poll suggests he should be fine, but it's worth tuning in for the nail-biting finish at 4.30am. Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and Clegg's number 2 in the coalition, is widely expected to fall to the SNP. His Inverness seat declares at 5am. Simon Hughes, a Coalition justice minister, might fall to Labour in Bermondsey—we'll know if he has at 3am, and senior party figures are worried about Lynne Featherstone, a Home Office Minister, who might also fall to Labour. Her Hornsey constituency declares at 3am. The Tories are trying to unseat Vince Cable in Twickenham, which declares at 4am.
Otherwise, the Conservatives are targeting great swathes of Lib Dem seats, including several in the South West. The last of these, St Ives, is also the last seat in the country to declare, expected at 1pm on Friday.
Ukip: the fate of the purple peril
Ukip have been sidelined in recent weeks, but Nigel Farage's band of insurgent Eurosceptics dominated the political conversation last year, and despite a slight squeeze are still averaging almost 14 per cent of the vote. Now, the party's greatest test approaches; can they turn their groundswell of support into tangible success at an election of national importance? There are two things to watch for. First, the party is projected to win between one and three seats, and there are a few other key targets it could in theory take. Second, Farage has said that another aim for the party is to come second in a number of Labour seats, shoring up a base to mount another assault on those constituencies in 2020.Track the progress of the People's Army:
Ukip's most likely victories are in Thurrock (CON), declaring at 3am, Clacton (Ukip), declaring at 4.30am, and the all-important Thanet South (CON)—Farage's contested seat, declaring at 6am. If the party takes all of these it will have done well, given the tough campaign it has had. If it also retains Rochester and Strood (Ukip), declaring at 5am, and wins the target seats of Castle Point (CON), declaring at 2am, and/or Great Grimsby (LAB), declaring at 3.30am, it's time for Nigel and his entourage to break out the champagne (or down pints of bitter.)
Conversely, if Farage loses in Thanet South, he has said he will stand down, and in the unlikely event that the party wins no seats (Clacton is its most likely win due to the convincing majority Tory defector Douglas Carswell secured in the recent by-election) he has also promised to stand down.
It's worth keeping an eye on Ukip-friendly Labour seats, particularly in the north, to see how many good second places Farage's party gets. Rotherham (LAB), declaring at 3am, Rother Valley (LAB), declaring at 3am, Dudley North (LAB), declaring at 4am, Plymouth Moor View (LAB), declaring at 4am, along with Great Grimsby, were all named in a Fabian Society report last year as places where Labour was under threat from the party.
How strong is the Green surge?
In the early part of this year, everyone got very excited as the Green party membership increased to over 60,000 (up from 16,839 in May 2014) and boosted their share of the vote to 5 per cent. Though the media largely wrote off the party again when Natalie Bennett suffered her infamous "brain fade," during a radio interview, they have battled on, making steady progress in some areas. It’s uncertain whether they will win any new seats—though they are on track to retain their existing one—but they may scupper Labour's chances by fighting it from the left in some key targets.When will we know if the party has faded out:
Brighton Pavilion (GREEN), declaring at 5am, is an almost certain win for the Greens. Its MP Caroline Lucas—who has won endorsements from wild-haired sages Russell Brand and Brian May—has been an effective and well-respected campaigner during this parliament.
Elsewhere, Bristol West (LIB), declaring at 3am, and Norwich South (LIB), declaring at 4.30am, are the only other two places the Greens stand any reasonable chance of winning. Otherwise, it's worth looking out for what they do to the Labour vote in seats where they threaten Ed Miliband's party. See the list according to BuzzFeed here.
Guide compiled by Josh Lowe, Dipo Faloyin and Serena Kutchinsky
