Politics

Clacton by-election: Are Ukip really here to stay?

There have been plenty of flash in the pan by-election successes. Whether Ukip transcends that fate depends on the Conservative party's fortunes

October 10, 2014
Douglas Carswell with his wife Clementine after winning the Clacton by-election. © Chris Radburn/PA Wire/Press Association Images
Douglas Carswell with his wife Clementine after winning the Clacton by-election. © Chris Radburn/PA Wire/Press Association Images

Ukip’s victory in Clacton is certainly dramatic; but have we been here before? During the Second World War, a new left-wing party called Common Wealth won three by-elections. It was crushed in the 1945 general election and disappeared as a political force soon after.

In 1973 Dick Taverne resigned as Labour MP for Lincoln, fought a by-election as “Democratic Labour”, and held his seat with a majority of 13,000—only to lose it the following year in the second general election of 1974.

In the 1980s, the newly-formed Social Democratic Party won three by-elections: Shirley Williams in Crosby (1981), Roy Jenkins in Glasgow, Hillhead (1982) and, most emphatically of all, Rosie Barnes in Greenwich (1987), who secured 53 per cent of the vote. The SDP collapsed soon after the 1987 general election.

This trip down memory lane suggests that Ukip will turn out to be another dazzling political comet that streaks briefly across our skies before disappearing. Could it end up as little more than a right-of-centre version of Common Wealth, Democratic Labour and the SDP?

Perhaps; but this time could be different. Ukip now has a chance to sustain its momentum, with Mark Reckless probably winning Rochester and Strood in a few weeks time, and other Conservative MPs defecting after that. Ukip could well come third in the popular vote next May, ahead of the Liberal Democrats; and although they will have far fewer MPs than the Lib Dems, they will have a base on which they can then build.

Whether they then fade, as the SDP did eventually, or advance further, depends largely on whether the Tories win the general election. If they do, and David Cameron has enough support in Parliament to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, then Ukip’s fox will be shot. Whatever the result of the referendum, Ukip’s main raison d’etre will disappear: we shall have settled the matter one way or the other.

There is another possibility. Ukip will syphon off enough Tory votes next May not just to win a few seats, but to tilt the balance against the Conservatives in a number of Con-Lab marginals to help Labour win 10 or 20 more seats and make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

Then Cameron will almost certainly stand down, or be forced out, as Conservative leader.It is possible that the Tories will then split. After all, its fault line has always been there—from the battles over the Corn Laws in the 1840s, via the conflicts over tariff reform just over 100 years ago, to Europe in recent times. The party has always tried to ride two horses that sometimes veer in different directions: one, internationalist, concerned to maximise business freedom and opportunities, the other nationalist, concerned to defend a particular idea of Britain and its values and traditions.

When the party has managed to ride these horses in harness, it has generally been invincible. When the harness breaks, it has been unelectable. If Ukip flourishes, then we may end up with two parties and formalise the divorce between the two Tory impluses.

Uunder our present system for electing MPs, this could mean that Britain’s divided Right remains out of power for a good many years. Nigel Farage might achieve his dream of leading a substantial right-wing party in the House of Commons—but at the price of Britain being governed for a good many years by centre-left pro-EU governments.

Or, to put that another way, any voter who passionately wants a referendum on the EU in 2017, must hope that the Tories win next year’s general election, and that Ukip’s bubble bursts.